A Personal Tribute to Ghali Na’abba

 27^th December, 2023

By: Amir Abdulazeez

 

S

ometime in 2006, I walked into the popular Gidan Akida building, the then Kano State headquarters of the Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD), a new party formed by the breakaway PDP faction. I was there to inquire on how lowly placed people like us can actively participate in the development of the party. The State Public Relations Officer told me that I have the option of choosing to belong to any of the four main houses within the party; Muhammad Abubakar Rimi, Malam Musa Gwadabe, Alhaji Gwadabe Satatima and Ghali Umar Na’abba.

 When the PRO heard that I cherished them all, but I wanted to work in the Na’abba camp, he congratulated me for choosing to work under a disciplined, courageous and principled politician. Unknown to him, I had already known Ghali Na;abba some ten years before, may be earlier. Apart from being too young to practically know much about the other three political leaders, I have taken time to follow the stewardship of Ghali Na’abba as the Speaker of Nigeria’s House of Representatives for the better part of 1999-2003.

In that same year of 2006, Na’abba declared for the Kano State Governorship. I was genuinely convinced that if elected, he will make Kano one of the most disciplined and organized states in Nigeria. His discipline, confidence and organization have often been misunderstood as arrogance. On this, he has cleared the air on many occasions. From what I know of him, he is a man of few words expressed only when necessary, he has a gentle and reserved personality, the kind of which makes him to never delve into affairs that doesn’t concerns him.

I remember working with like-minds to engage in one of the best intellectual mobilizations any young undergraduates could do to garner support for Na’abba to become Governor at that time. Unfortunately, he withdrew from the governorship race some weeks to the primary elections of the Action Congress (AC), the new party which was the product of a merger between ACD, Bola Tinubu’s Alliance for Democracy (AD) and other groups. Ghali’s withdrawal speech wasn’t detailed, but his arguments were that the process is too manipulated for any honest and disciplined aspirant to withstand. I think that was the last time Ghali contested for any position in his political career. 

Ghali Umar Na’abba was more than a political figure—he was a beacon of integrity, courage, and unwavering dedication to Nigeria. As a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, his legacy resonates far beyond his political tenure. Na’abba's commitment to democratic values and principles shaped the course of Nigeria's political landscape. His leadership during a critical juncture in Nigeria's history marked him as a staunch advocate for transparency and accountability. Beyond politics, he was a symbol of resilience and fearlessness, unafraid to challenge the status quo for the betterment of his nation. His vision for a prosperous, united Nigeria was evident in every action he took and every word he spoke.

Na’abba's tenure as the Speaker of the House of Representatives marked a significant chapter in Nigeria's political history. He was known for his principled stance and his assertive approach in upholding the legislature's independence and separation of powers, particularly in the face of President Olusegun Obasanjo's bullish administration. The Fourth Republic in Nigeria was still in its infancy when Na’abba assumed the role of Speaker. With the country transitioning from years of military rule to a democratic system, the political landscape was rife with challenges. However, Na’abba brought to the forefront a blend of experience, political acumen, and a commitment to legislative oversight. He staunchly believed in the autonomy of the legislative arm of government and its pivotal role in checking the excesses of the executive. This belief set the stage for numerous clashes between the National Assembly, under Na’abba's leadership, and President Obasanjo's administration.

Obasanjo could not have the audacity to unleash his anti-democratic tendencies until Na’abba left the Speakership in 2003. Every Nigerian who witnessed the two tenures of Obasanjo (1999-2007) will testify to this. During his tenure, Na’abba led the House of Representatives with a firm hand, asserting the legislature's independence and challenging executive actions that were deemed against the national interest. One of the notable confrontations arose from the legislature's insistence on its oversight function. Na’abba's House of Representatives was resolute in investigating various issues, including allegations of corruption within the government, regardless of pressure from the executive arm.

It is sad that the many young political followers of today did not have the opportunity to witness and be inspired by the era of great and principled leaders like Ghali Na’abba. They are unlucky and unfortunate to find themselves supporting reckless crooks and shameless greedy people who have turned them to sycophants, social media warriors and other roles that have kept them perpetually stupid. These are some of the reasons that have kept Na’abba on the sidelines since 2007. 

Since 2007, whenever Ghali makes any attempt to reactive his participation in Nigeria’s political landscape, he immediately realizes that there is no space for disciplined people like him. Rather than adjust and follow the trend, he simply retreats and face his private issues. He had always chosen integrity over selfishness. In 2011, his house was burned down in Kano by hooligans because he supported President Jonathan. I have never heard him complain publicly on this treatment meted on him by his own people. As always, he was calm, reserved and simply forged ahead. That was how he permanently minded his business away from the murky, dirty and irresponsible waters of Nigerian partisan politics.

Today, 27^th December, 2023, we have lost Ghali Na’abba, some few months after turning 65 and almost exactly one year part from the death of his mother, another woman of trust, integrity and kindness. May Allah have mercy on them both. Though he may have left this world, his legacy lives on as an inspiration to current and future leaders. Ghali Umar Na’abba's contributions to Nigeria's democratic journey will forever be remembered and cherished, a testament to the enduring power of principle-driven leadership. 

At a point when Kano’s reputation was soared by the Salisu Buhari Toronto certificate scandal, Ghali Naaba, his successor as Speaker worked diligently to give the state a good name nationally and even globally. His active career was short-lived, but he managed to enter the comity of the political all-time greats in the history of Kano State. It now remains to see how the current custodians of the state will work to have his name honoured and legacies preserved.

After surviving numerous blackmails, countless threats and many impeachment attempts as Speaker, President Obasanjo later ganged up with his foot soldiers and garrison commanders in Kano to deny him a return to the National Assembly in 2003. First they failed to stopped him from getting the Kano Municipal PDP ticket and then they later ganged up to work against him and their own party in the General Elections and they succeeded. The fall of Ghali Naabba marked an abrupt end to the era of Legislative Independence and Political courage in Nigeria.

  

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

NYSC: A National Integrator at 50

 25^th May, 2023

By: Amir Abdulazeez

Nigeria is among the leading countries in Africa and the world that have invested so much on national integration over the last 50 years. For the past 10 years, I have been opportune to study different efforts by African, Asian and South American countries towards national unity. For example, Rwanda has achieved a lot with some of its post-genocide reconciliatory schemes. In Nigeria, the NYSC is one policy that has stood the test of time. Although the Nigerian diversity and complexity has proven to be beyond the capacity of the scheme to contain, NYSC had done well by navigating through these years.

This week, the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) marked its 50^th anniversary. It was established in 1973 by the government of General Yakubu Gowon as an aftermath of the Nigerian Civil War. Over the years, the NYSC has become a household symbol and integral part of Nigerian national life. Different families and institutions produce young graduates from different parts of the country who come together to serve their fatherland. They are exposed to diverse cultures and traditions, which promotes understanding and national unity. The scheme has also helped to promote socio-economic development in rural areas, where most corps members are deployed to serve.

The achievements of the NYSC over the past 50 years are numerous. It has produced thousands of corps members who have excelled in various fields of endeavor. Many of them have become successful entrepreneurs, leading politicians, respected academics, and high-ranking civil servants. From one batch of corps members per year, it has now become three batches of multiple streams every year. The scheme is believed by many to have contributed significantly to nation-building by promoting the values of unity, patriotism, and selflessness among Nigerian youths.

NYSC is a unique program that sets it apart from other national service programs in the world. One of the unique aspects of the NYSC program is that it requires all Nigerian graduates to participate, regardless of their social status, religion, or ethnicity. This creates a level playing field where everyone is given an opportunity to serve their country and gain experience. Another unique feature of the NYSC program is that it involves a three-week orientation course for participants, which is held in a campsite away from their homes. During the orientation course, participants are exposed to different cultures, beliefs, traditions, and languages of Nigeria. To some extent, this helps to foster tolerance, understanding and a sense of belonging among participants.

NYSC also promotes national development through its activities. Corps members are posted to different parts of Nigeria to work in various sectors, including education, health, agriculture, and infrastructural development. The program helps to address manpower shortages in rural areas, which helps to bridge the gap between urban and rural development. Furthermore, the NYSC program provides an opportunity for Nigerian graduates to acquire new skills, develop leadership qualities, and gain work experience. This helps to boost their employability and increase their chances of becoming successful in their chosen fields.

However, there have been some challenges over the years. Fifty years after, the achievements of NYSC still look more abstract and vague than tangible and substantial; meaning that Nigeria is yet to see the real impact of the scheme on national development. Some critics have argued that it has outlived its usefulness and is no longer necessary. They claim that the country should by now move beyond the era of national integration and that the resources invested in the NYSC could be better utilized in other areas. Some believe that the NYSC has proven unable to achieve its objectives. Infact, it has started compounding some of the very problems it was initially established to address. In addition to this, there are specific challenges troubling the NYSC.

One of the most significant issues facing the NYSC is security. Over the years, corps members have been victims of various forms of violence, including kidnappings, armed robbery, and assaults. Many parts of the country are considered unsafe for corps members, and this has resulted in the loss of lives and property. The frequent plying of dangerous roads by corps members is another issue. Many young and promising Nigerians have been wasted in the course of serving during the scheme.

Another critical issue is corruption. The NYSC is receiving funding and support from the Federal and State governments as well as some corporate organizations. Despite huge sums of money being budgeted for the scheme, there is lack of essential facilities and resources, including adequate accommodation, transportation, and medical services. Some corps members have been forced to sleep in unfurnished classrooms, while others have to travel long distances to access health care services. In addition, corrupt NYSC officials have rubbished the scheme by conniving with corps members who don’t wish to stay and serve. Allegations of favouritism in posting corps members to lucrative areas of primary assignments in exchange for bribes are everywhere.

After several years of existence, many of the orientation camps lack basic amenities such as electricity, water supply, and sanitation facilities. This has resulted in unsanitary conditions that have led to outbreaks of diseases such as diarrhoea, cholera, and typhoid. There is a need for the government to invest in upgrading the facilities at the orientation camps and ensure that they meet the required standards.

Lack of community support due to ethnic and religious factors and degradation of the once existing respect and welcoming attitude towards corps members have demoralized many.  I remember during our days as corps member in Osun State, some of our colleagues were treated woefully by people who supposed to protect them. Low morale among corps members have thus become a significant challenge. Many corps members are dissatisfied with their conditions of service, including inadequate allowances, harsh living conditions, and poor treatment by some government officials. This has resulted in a decline in the motivation levels of some corps members, which affects their performance and contribution to national development.

Over the years, there have been different criticisms against the NYSC. Many stakeholders and volunteers have made proposals on how the scheme can be reformed. To be fair to the handlers of the scheme, there have been a lot of innovations and improvements over the last 10 years. However, there is still much left to be done. NYSC's 50^th anniversary presents an opportunity for reflection and celebration.  The Federal Government should sit down with stakeholders and conduct a critical review of the scheme and address its challenges. It should receive all the necessary adjustments and modifications that will make it truly impacting on national development and mechanisms should be introduced to measure and evaluate its performance.

On a general note, for the NYSC and any other scheme to succeed in Nigeria, our leaders must have to change their attitudes. While the scheme is working to integrate the country, our leaders are working to divide it for political advantage. While ordinary Nigerians are asked to serve their country with all their strengths, their leaders are serving themselves and their families with all our wealth. While our corps member are told in camp to be good and responsible citizens, their leaders are openly stealing the wealth meant for the betterment of the future. We cannot succeed this way and in a situation like this, no scheme can achieve national integration, not even the NYSC.

 

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Forty Years Without Aminu Kano

17^th April, 2023

By: Amir Abdulazeez

I

became familiar with politics before the age of ten. One of the contributing factors was having family members who contested for elective positions during the botched 3^rd republic in the early 1990s. I was close to people contesting positions as low as councillorship and as high as president. Whenever they are having discussions, there was one name that comes up frequently and that name was Malam Aminu Kano. At that time, his death was not even 10 years old.

I knew close to nothing about this frequently discussed man then, but I grew up striving to understand more about him. One thing I noticed is that politicians from all affiliations adore him, pray for him and then treat him like a prophet. Whenever, he is mentioned, people get filled with nostalgia. There is virtually no politician in Kano and by extension the greater part of Northern Nigeria who doesn’t want to be associated with the Aminu Kano brand.

From the over thirty years since I first heard his story, I have been struggling to understand more about him.  The deeper I go, the more I realize how special he was. From 2002, when I became much keen on observing and studying Nigerian politics, up to date, I have been very much convinced that majority of the set of people we call politicians today are mere jokers without any vision compared to the likes of Malam Aminu Kano. Only a very few of them have tried to replicate the kind of discipline and honesty he was known for. During their era, the likes of Aminu Kano were in politics for a reason which was never self-centred.

Though known mainly as a politician, emancipator, reformer and activist, Malam was also a great author, orator, mentor and educationist. He is credited with establishing the modern Islamiyyah system that we are operating today. He is also believed to be one of the shapers of mass education as being practiced today. He had touched society positively in many ways other than politics. That is why, we have diverse institutions named after him; roads, schools, hospitals, airports, etc.

At the peak of his powers, Malam was literally the owner of Kano politics, yet he was humble, kind and generous even to his opponents. His honesty was uncommon even for his era, it was reported that one day, the then Kano State Governor, Muhammadu Abubakar Rimi went to visit him with a gift of an electric generator. Malam enquired whether the governor had provided a generator for all the people of Kano State? That was how he rejected it and Rimi had to leave with it. When Malam died, he didn’t leave any wealth for his family. His only house is now a research center managed by Bayero University, Kano.

Today marks exactly 40 years since the demise of this rare human being. Although his ideology, ethics and teachings had remained significant over these years, the people have never stopped mourning him. Every year, his death looks fresh; Malam will be mourned forever. A champion of progressive politics and justice, a defender of the oppressed and down trodden, a true man of the people and a dedicated ad unique statesman. He is among the greatest Nigerians and role model to millions of citizens and leaders. He will remain a reference point for a very long time or may be forever. His history will be written and rewritten severally.

His death marked the end of ideological politics in Northern Nigeria. Personally, I see him as the greatest Kano citizen of all time, at least in the modern era. He has already established a norm by living a life that any right-thinking person will aspire to lead. It is unfortunate that a society like Kano which enjoyed a solid political foundation laid by the likes of Aminu Kano is now governed by the kind of shameless and self-centred people we see today.

While some political leaders have worked hard and tirelessly to sustain the Aminu Kano legacy, many others have been anti-people, playing the politics of self-interest at the expense of the society. The bitter part is that even political crooks and criminals disguising themselves as leaders are claiming to be identifying with the teachings of Aminu Kano. Today, we have so many pretenders who claim to be disciples of the late sage and only people with historical knowledge can unearth their treachery. It is funny that some people even wear his kind of attire bragging to be like him, while in practice they are corrupt, morally bankrupt and don’t adhere to any of his teachings.

It is unfortunate that many that lived with him did not inherit his modesty, honesty and simplicity. Many of the influential people who remember him today only do so hypocritically. They were never sincere about promoting his virtues. People who claim to have him as their role models are stupendously rich beyond rationality while maintaining a questionable character. If he was alive, he will disown most of these pretenders.

Malam Aminu Kano was not rich, he didn’t hold many government positions, he didn’t force people into building a political empire, he wasn’t greedy; but yet, his name has been written in gold and nothing can erase it for the rest of history. The corrupt leaders of today will die to have his kind of name, but they can’t exercise any of his virtues. They are shamelessly hell bent on garnering wealth, wealth and more wealth as if there is no life after death.

All my life, I have aspired to become myself and carve a niche from my own view of life. I had understood very early in life that every human being is unique in his own right and there is no rigid template that everyone must follow to become great. I have been inspired by many great men though, yet I feel I still enjoy being myself. However, for every rule there is an exception; from what I’ve gathered about Malam Aminu Kano, he is that one person I can give up everything just to be exactly like him.

 

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez 

Wike and the Limit of Arrogance by Umar Danjani Hadejia

 

28^th August, 2022

By: Umar Danjani Hadejia

For some reason, Nyesom Wike has manged to become one of the trending talking points in Nigerian politics since June. From 2015 to date, many political leaders especially within the PDP have decided to remain calm as Wike’s arrogance keeps graduating from one empty stage to another. As the PDP is battling with its not-too-familiar role of a new opposition party, many have been reluctant in openly cautioning Wike’s antics to prevent any unnecessary explosion. This is what he has leveraged on to hold the party to ransom, the exact reason for our situation today.

Governor Nyesom Wike thinks he has the monopoly of intimidation believing that there is no line he cannot cross. He feels he has come of age to the extent that he can rudely utter anything against PDP elders like Sule Lamido. As one of the last three founding PDP fathers standing who has a duty to say the truth no matter whose ox is gored, we can’t fold our arms in the midst of Wike’s irresponsible behaviour towards him just because we want PDP to win elections. For Wike’s information if he doesn’t know, Sule Lamido and Abubakar Rimi were imprisoned by Late Abacha in the course of fighting for the establishment of the democracy. 

The issue is simple as Lamido pointed out, there was a convention in which even Wike who lost accepted to be credible. What then is the noise for? Is Wike the first person to lose a Presidential primary?

Ordinarily, there shouldn’t be any reason to interfere in Wike’s show of arrogance if he had not been disrespectful to the PDP leaders. Categorically, who or what has offended Wike? Is it his Southern co-contestants whom he couldn’t convince to work together with him? Is it Atiku Abubakar who settled for competence and exercised his constitutional right by picking a running mate he can be comfortable working with? What exactly is the issue here?  

To begin with, Wike is as empty as his intimidations. He doesn’t have any track record for excellence. As a Federal Cabinet member between 2011to 2015, Wike didn’t distinguish himself for anything good except for using his position to unleash the violence that brought him to office as governor in Rivers State. While President Jonathan’s cabinet was known for having the best brains then, Wike didn’t demonstrate any capacity to deliver in his four years as minister because he lacked any.

Wike’s assertion that Sule Lamido is promoting his family for political positions is the height of ignorance. For the over 45 years in which he has been in politics, he had supported and promoted the career of hundreds of people whom he never shared any family relationship with. Between 2007 to 2015, he could’ve easily opted to nominate his son or any of his family members into any position, but he instead decided to pick others. If he had done otherwise, nothing would’ve happened.

Over the years, Lamido has promoted and helped many people who later turned out to sabotage him and the political party he had laboured to build. Should he continue to be promoting people who are enemies of the PDP? In the last 24 years, Sule Lamido together with others laboured to build and nurture the PDP for which Wike has enjoyed and still enjoying today. It is PDP that gave Wike everything he is boasting of today. Even the Rivers State resources he is squandering today in travelling and holding meetings abroad are all thanks to the office of the PDP government he is occupying.

For the avoidance of doubt, Sule Lamido did not sponsor or promote the candidacy of Mustapha who happens to be his son. Mustapha contested like any other candidate, subjected himself to the rigours of the process and won the primary elections which was witnessed by everyone and certified by INEC and PDP National officials. He won on his own merit and he is qualified with his three degrees to occupy any office in Nigeria. If Lamido wanted to impose any family member, he could’ve done so in 2015 or 2019 when he had absolute control. Can Wike honestly claim to have emerged freely and fairly in 2015? Can he say with all honesty that his current governorship candidate emerged transparently? What moral right does he have to question other people’s choices?

Wike’s arrogance is riding on the illusion of owning Rivers State and the privilege of controlling its resources. This is why he apparently believes he can be rude to everybody as if he is the only state governor in Nigeria. Rivers State people are not Wike’s slaves or servants, they are independent and wise enough to vote the right candidates in any elections. If he thinks he can lay claim to the ownership of their freedom to exercise their rights, they will surely prove him wrong in 2023. Before Wike, PDP has been winning elections since its inception. Certainly, he can’t claim to have installed Dr. Perter Odili or Rotimi Amaechi as governors.

There is no problem whatsoever with Wike wanting to become president. But if he thinks he can bulldoze and intimidate his way like he did on his way to the Rivers Government House in 2015 and get away with it, he is mistaken. The office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria comes with a lot of responsibility which are too sophisticated for an arrogant rascal. The maturity needed for Leadership is beyond a bottle of whisky. Wike lacks the temperament to occupy such an exalted office.

We call on Nyesom Wike to embrace humility and concentrate on the victory of the PDP. We understand his fears of political irrelevance beyond 2023 when he no longer has the luxury of power and unlimited government resources to unleash his intimidation against the public. The only way out for him is to be humble, respect his elders and leaders, accept that power is transient, work for the victory of the PDP and perhaps reserve some hope for himself in 2027.

 

More Clarifications Ahead of 2023

 15^th June, 2022

By: Amir Abdulazeez

W

hen President Obasanjo carelessly picked Goodluck Jonathan to serve as ‘Yaradua’s potential Vice President in 2007, little did we know that the politics of picking running mates will later become complex and problematic. The death of Ummaru, ascension of Jonathan, surprise emergence of Namadi Sambo and Patrick Yakowa becoming the first Christian Civilian Governor of Kaduna State would all combine to later add more relevance to the politics of running mate selection. In 2014, APC had more headache in picking a presidential running mate than the presidential candidate himself. It took them so much time and effort that one thought they will organize a fresh convention for that purpose.

Today, the Muslim-Muslim ticket debacle is the bane of Nigerian political discourse. While clamouring for fairness and balance which are needed for a fragile system like Nigeria’s, we should also remember that from 1999 to date, no religion can claim any net gain from this Nigerian version of democracy. Ordinary followers of all religions have been victims of bad governance, even pagans. We have suffered so much so that if a pagan/pagan ticket will eradicate insecurity, fix the economy and bring development while being fair to all interests and affiliations, we should allow it. Therefore, the choice is between searching for solutions and satisfying sentiments; we seem to favour the latter.

A section of public commentators and spectators are already suggesting a walkover for Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 polls. That is the biggest complacency I have ever seen in contemporary Nigerian politics. How can you be facing a ruling party with almost 65% of political stakeholdership in the country and be expecting to have a walkover? Atiku is an institution but his successes in the last two PDP primaries is more of financial supremacy than political dominance. That aside, barring a Buhari-like scenario, Atiku will definitely make a good president. He is perhaps the only fully independent candidate with a clear and accessible blueprint since 2007. In 2011, he had a better manifesto and approach than President Goodluck Jonathan; he only lost the PDP primaries to the power of incumbency. By the way, what happened to the Jonathan 2023 candidacy?

From 1992, this is Atiku’s 7^th attempt at the Presidency with 2019 being his closest to success. Many believe 2023 is his year and so many obvious factors call for optimism in his camp. However, there are two fundamental things that may haunt Waziri; (in)consistency and (un)popularity. Buhari and Tinubu are successfully reaping the harvests of consistency and perseverance; they sticked to opposition politics all their lives. Atiku should’ve remained in opposition when he decamped to Action Congress in 2007 or should’ve remained in the ruling PDP when he decamped back in 2011. Ambition had kept him running from one place to another making him neither establishment nor anti-establishment. The second question is whether there is a single state in Nigeria which Atiku can secure one million votes or more in 2023? I hope we all remember Dr. Rabi’u Kwankwaso’s 3-K States theory?

Tinubu’s boast in Ogun State over his role in the emergence of Buhari as President needs some revisiting and clarification. For the avoidance of doubt, Muhammadu Buhari did not lose the 2003 presidential elections, it was brutally rigged to return Obasanjo for a second term. 2003 will easily enter the list of the worst elections in modern world history. In 2007, the presidential elections results were simply written, so we can’t even call that election not to talk of who won or lost. I have never relied on 2003 and 2007 election figures for any research or serious analysis, because they are largely fabricated. The 2011 elections were relatively fair but at least 40% of the vote was rigged, written or simply inflated especially in the South-South and South-East.

In circumstances like these, we cannot comfortably declare Buhari a loser of all the previous elections he contested and only became a winner when he met Tinubu. It is true that 2015 was the weakest version of political Buhari, it was true that he had lost hope and that the APC merger spearheaded by Tinubu was what brought him back to life. But it is also true that so many other factors other than Tinubu contributed crucially to Buhari’s victory, one major one was the abysmal performance of Goodluck Jonathan. One thing that is however certain is that, without Tinubu’s support, it would’ve been near impossible for Buhari to emerge APC flagbearer against the financial powerhouses in Kwankwaso and Atiku.

This brings us to the argument of access to public funds as the reason why some candidates (not aspirants) are stronger than others. Supporters of a particular presidential candidate even claimed that if their man had equal access to public funds, he would be better than certain candidates. This is laughable; a debate like this will take us nowhere. Just campaign for your candidate and persuade people to vote for him. If we are talking about the abuse of peoples trust and the utilization of our commonwealth for personal political development, none of the major politicians in Nigeria will come out clean. So, let us not deceive ourselves and others.

Where are our smaller political parties who had spent most of their last four years fighting INEC over deregistration? This is a good amount of time they would’ve spent in coming together to form a strong bloc. In case we don’t know, 74 of them were deregistered for failing to meet the requirements to continue to exist as political parties. Probably about 10 to 15 of the currently existing will be due for deregistration by this time next year. Instead of them to consider merging to form a decent alternative, they’ll rather hang on only to be fighting a legal survival battle with INEC next year. As the strongest and largest intellectual organization in West Africa, I don’t even know why ASUU is yet to form a political party or adopt any of the smaller parties to set up a path towards satisfying their own demands all by themselves instead for waiting and hoping for a hopeless Federal Government.

Why is nobody talking about the enormous task ahead of the next president whom credible international reports suggest will have to use 100% of his revenue in servicing (not repaying) debts by 2024? To execute projects or even pay salaries, the next government may have to borrow further. Nigeria is in trouble, we are drowning in the ocean of foreign debts, meanwhile we are concerned over the religion of a presidential candidate more than his ability to bring us out of this mess. Buhari has failed because Jonathan had built a solid foundation for that failure. Now he has built a worse foundation for his successor. Ladies and gentlemen, the possibility and danger of the next president irrespective of his affiliation and preparedness to economically be worse than Buhari is imminent. May God help us.

All of the political dynamics of today are closely related to that of 1999, some a bit earlier. If you have not directly experienced Nigerian political development from 1999 with a mix of some pre-1999 historical knowledge, you will find it difficult if not impossible to connect certain dots that you see today. Extensive and intensive reading may help, but politely interacting with veterans will do better. Social media where most of the political debates occur is dominated by youths who knew little or nothing pre-2011 and don’t invest significant time in reading but trying to engage or even confront the same veterans that would’ve been their best opportunity at understanding the genesis of the current situation.

There are some visible changes in Nigeria’s socio-political spaces, although not new but have taken a different twist from the previous. The renewed order is the attempt to criminalize certain political choices against others. Between 2014 to 2018, discourses were dominated by hate, campaigns of calumny, fabrications and outright abuse. Today, political promoters are trying hard to make it appear that only their candidates are good enough and any other choice is treason. This is extremism, let’s be careful, everything is a matter of opinion and everyone is entitled to his.

 

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Some Clarifications Ahead of 2023

 10th June, 2022

By: Amir Abdulazeez

T

he primary elections of the two leading political parties, APC and PDP had come and gone. The dusts raised by the exercises across various states of the federation are yet to settle. As things are currently going, it is unlikely that the primary election appeal committees of both parties will adequately or significantly settle these dusts to the extent of amounting to a major change of the status quo. Afterall everything was clear, the contests were majorly a measure of financial power.

As usual, our attempts to digest the intrigues and expectations of the upcoming grand 2023 event has once again resulted to endless debates that often lead to more confusions than clarifications. Certain political dynamics cannot be adequately explained by simple analysis or even complex ones. This is truer for cases like Nigeria where deep insight is considered old fashioned, authentic information is always scarce and genuine narratives are always twisted.

Ahead of the just concluded APC Primaries, many accused Yemi Osinbajo of being a traitor and betrayer by contesting against his benefactor Tinubu. However, few people will understand that only one out of a million people will go so close to the presidency like Osinbajo did without succumbing to the temptation of taking a shot at it. The cabal-theory notwithstanding, he is perhaps the Nigerian Vice President who was closest to the full privileges of the presidency in recent history. At a time, the Professor himself appeared like the next president in waiting. In sincere terms, Osinbajo may feel that running for the Presidency is more of an attempt to fulfil a destiny than betraying a godfather whose help he may not need any longer.

May be, many have forgotten, the Vice President had at a time been an Acting President with virtually full Presidential powers. He is aware of people's confidence in his competence and he quite knows that there are many factors against Tinubu's candidacy. With the Southwest as the default region where APC will likely have its next candidate, it is only natural he (the second default candidate) tries his luck in case Tinubu (the default candidate) does not get the nod. If he doesn't contest, how can he cash in on a Tinubu collapse? If he hadn’t contested, his promoters would never have forgiven him. Now that he had contested, he knows the extents and limits of his political strengths which might have been hitherto exaggerated.

Some analysts have accused Tinubu of trying to become President at all cost despite being sick and unstable. What we have forgotten is that, he had since 1998 invested almost 25 years of his life (and health) trying to reach this point and we all know he will need an ultimate reward at the end of it all. Now that the reward is within reach, only one out of a million people will back off over health challenges that are yet to prevent him from managing a public appearance. When he was making all those sacrifices and concessions, many of us did not bother to understand the larger picture of where he was heading to. If not for democracy, one will suggest that, the APC ticket should’ve been handed over to him unopposed

Therefore, Tinubu has fought for long, he has been in the opposition all his life, he has helped build a new political order in Nigeria. Without him, power will still likely be with the PDP now and may be forever. It's not his making that his health appears to be failing him at this moment of near fulfilment, but as a human he will continue believing his condition is good enough to manage him to the finish line. The Late President Ƴaradua’s situation in 2010 should teach us some lessons, that of Buhari in 2017 too. Tinubu is certainly not the best APC had on offer capacity-wise, but he is the most formidable, his political structure is out of this world. Win or lose, at least they have repaid a significant part of the debt they owe him.

In the build up to the primaries, we all thought everyone was an enemy of the South east since the rest of Nigeria had refused to exclusively zone the presidency to the region. In his speech at the APC convention, Ogbonnaya Onu emotionally shouted for justice against the Igbo marginalization. If not for the APC and PDP Southeast delegates who proved the Igbos unpreparedness by refusing to vote for any of their kinsmen, everyone will simply be emotionally blackmailed. Besides, we have all seen how disorganized the Southeast aspirants were across both parties.

In 2003 to 2010, the South east was considered a strong political bloc, but they wasted opportunity after opportunity to consolidate, instead they focused on ethnic and religious politics. Conceding the Presidency to the Southwest in 1999 was largely a Military arrangement executed against democratic principles. The southeast demanding same in a maturing democracy is quite difficult. In this era, no one will dash you the Presidency, you have to earn it.

Another aspirant is NNPP’s Rabi’u Kwankwaso whose critics accuse of being a local champion. However, his supporters insist on rating him higher than Atiku and Tinubu base on tangible track record. However, the debate is not as simple as it seems. The same scale cannot be used to measure Tinubu, Kwankwaso and especially Atiku as their political career paths are distinctively different. The truth is Kwankwaso is a national figure who has invested too much energy on local politics and that was why he was able to achieve what he has achieved. This has come with a price though because he has dominated and taken away all the local relevance that he could’ve easily allowed his subordinates to coordinate, a feat that would’ve given him a Tinubu-like aura. At the end, he ends up fighting for crumbs with local people that makes him unavoidably more local than national.

What of Peter Obi? He appears to have more packaging than substance but, he is yet another litmus test for the Southeast. They feel denied, marginalized and short-changed. Their response should be a massive vote for him even if he may not win, they will succeed in sending a strong message ahead of 2027. However, there is a wiser option. They can use Petr Obi as bargaining tool with someone like Kwankwaso for example; form an alliance, challenge the red-cap man to deliver the Northwest zone while they offer southeast and see whether something will come out of it.

The bottom line is that we don't need to be too much upset or over obsessed with anybody's ambition, any region's miscalculations or any party's misdirection. There are so many choices in the political landscape which our myopia is hindering us from utilizing. For example, if you truly want an Igbo president, Labour party has fielded Peter Obi, if you want somebody whose hands is not shaking, NNPP has fielded Kwankwaso, etc. Quietly do the needful and enjoin others to do same. Give it try, the strong parties and candidates are only frontliners because you and me made them so.

Nigerian public discourse often makes complex political analysis look simple and simple political analysis look complex. And finally, we end up achieving no political analysis at all.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez