Who Will Checkmate APC?

29^TH May, 2015

By: Amir Abdulazeez

T

he All Progressives’ Congress (APC) is now Nigeria’s official ‘ruling’, sorry ‘governing’ party; recall, Buhari said they were going to govern not rule. Despite now being the party in power at the centre and in control of a little less than two-third of the states of the federation, APC is arguably still not the dominant party in the country, especially when we compare its current status with what PDP was in 2003 and 2007.

Some of the reasons why APC may not be considered as dominant as PDP was include; it is not in absolute control of the National Assembly where it slightly lacks the two-third majority in the House of Representatives and only has a slim majority in the Senate. APC will be facing the PDP as the most potentially strong and richest opposition party in Nigeria’s history. The party had ruled for 16 years and it will take a reasonably long time before its material wealth (something that is indispensable in Nigerian politics) and long-term influence gained in power to completely wither away. The PDP is also controlling some of the richest and most important states in Nigeria with Kano and Lagos being the most significant exception, apart from having some of Nigeria’s most valuable political maestros within its fold. Furthermore, PDP’s strong ward to national political structure across the country built over the years with power, wealth and patronage cannot be easily dismantled.

However, the question is whether the PDP can use all these potentials to constitute a formidable opposition to the governing APC, checkmate it, give it a good fight and possibly reposition strongly to stand a chance of taking over power from it in 2019? Since it is too early to understand and predict the new political direction in the country, answers to these questions can only be hypothetical.

As noted earlier, APC has no so much significant dominance over the PDP, but sooner or later it will get that dominance. The APC will get its dominance from future PDP’s misdoings and other events that will arise; PDP’s post-election crises is probably a sign of things to come. First of all, even in defeat, PDP seems unprepared to jettison its use and dump attitude complemented by brutal godfatherism, thereby creating more and more enemies for itself who continue operating and sabotaging it from within. It is expected that now without state power, this culture in PDP is likely to slow down and eventually stop, but the amount of damage it will do to the party before it stops may prove costly. The PDP subconsciously engineered its poor showing in the North and South-West thereby almost relegating itself to a regional party. It is very much unlikely that PDP can redeem its poor northern image in good time enough to checkmate APC’s forthcoming dominance. In the South-South and South-East where the PDP had a massive national following, it refused to allow the people to freely and fairly vote for their choices in local elections and the people are likely to punish it in potential bye-elections and in gubernatorial elections of Bayelsa, Edo and Anambra that will take place before 2019. One major setback for PDP is that the party is widely expected to lose big at all levels in the election tribunals. Before 2015, PDP had two strong annexed parties in APGA and Labour Party which have played very significant roles in PDP’s ‘winning’ of presidential elections. In what looked like suicidal, the PDP decided to kill and swallow the LP and has badly wounded the APGA and therefore now left with no other allies outside the main party. With its expected continuous decline, PDP will have it very difficult to win the gubernatorial elections in Ondo, Kogi and even Ekiti states. All these are factors that will weaken the PDP and strengthen the APC.

The PDP throughout its sixteen years had built itself around money, power and influence and 16 years is not 16 weeks. It will be very difficult if not almost impossible for the party to survive without these things unless they adjust extraordinarily. One to two years from now, the PDP will look more and more dilapidated, disorganized and most likely get disintegrated. This would be a very bad development for Nigerian politics. For many Nigerians who would like PDP to regroup and keep APC on its toes, they are more than likely to be disappointed. With a possible occurrence of this scenario, who then will checkmate APC?

The All Progressives’ Congress would from all indication dominate the Nigerian political landscape by mid-2016 up to probably early 2017, but anything after that cannot be easily predicted.

When APC becomes the dominant party in Nigeria, it is only normal that we get someone to checkmate its excesses. First, we need to determine how much checkmating does the APC require? It is very predictable that in matters within the sphere of Buhari’s direct influence, APC will require little or no checkmating at all. This is because it is simply unthinkable that Buhari will deliberately allow things he can directly control to go out of order and it is unimaginable that the new President will sacrifice his life-long integrity by allowing people directly under his control to mess up without dealing with them. However, any other APC issue outside Buhari’s direct influence cannot be trusted to be significantly different to that of PDP. For instance, one cannot bet against the new National Assembly under the APC to continue ‘business as usual’, we can’t bet against the APC Governors to continue along the tyrannical and autocratic line of most Nigerian Governors since 1999; as party leaders, the party had officially equipped its governors to run the state chapters of the party almost like their personal properties. One may not expect APC Local Government Chairmen and other officials not to abuse office and one also cannot trust the APC party officials to conduct free, fair and credible primaries at all levels as well as running the party transparently without favouritism, nepotism and corruption. Now that it has power, can we rule out the advancement of godfatherism, candidate imposition, money politics and other undemocratic practices into new levels within APC?

If APC needs checkmating and the PDP may not be able to do that, who else can? Buhari alone can be trusted to checkmate between 15 to 30% of the APC’s excesses. If he can firmly control his government and ensure strict adherence to discipline and due process, some few APC organs may fall in line. Secondly, it may be possible that APC may checkmate itself depending on how events turn out. This is because; the party is an amalgamation of different seemingly incompatible groups whose main objective was to win elections. Cracks are likely to occur and the party may break into factions, this may start from the unhealed wounds that could be created from the election of National Assembly Principal Officers. These cracks may widen beyond redemption especially in the states where the governors are likely to continue with their dictatorial tendencies. The fiercest opposition to the party and its leadership is likely to come from within and by the next convention meant to elect the leaders of the party in 2018, the final straw may have broken the camel’s back, with only the presidency as the source of unity and inspiration for all the warring factions of the party.

Presently, it is reported that some political stakeholders have started making underground efforts to come up with a third powerful alternative party to APC and PDP and they are determined to start work as early as late 2015 to early 2016. Part of their plan is to accommodate all the previously deregistered political parties and some interested existing ones into one large group. If this effort leads to fruition, coupled with determination and good leadership by the right people, then that new party may be backed by Nigerians to give the APC a good fight before and in 2019.

All these hypotheses aside, independent socio-online media activist are most certain to become the group that will give APC the biggest fight and the most significant checkmating of its life. If we recall, this group played one of the most significant role in kicking Jonathan and PDP out of Aso Rock. The majority of the Nigerian conventional mainstream media is likely to remain divided and in many cases profit-minded ahead of 2019, just as it was during the height of the Buhari-Jonathan campaign. Socio-online media activists, patriots, nationalists and bloggers have come to stay in Nigeria and they are likely to become stronger, more formal and more effective especially with the renewed confidence and sense of accomplishment that they now have from the 2015 elections. If APC is not careful, this group, that gave it one of its most significant supports into Aso Rock, would be the same to sack it out of it.

 ©2015: abdulazeezamir@hotmail.com

FOR THE RECORD: President Buhari's Acceptance and Inaugral Speeches

THE DIE IS CAST: ACCEPTANCE STATEMENT BY GENERAL MUHAMMADU BUHARI, GCFR, PRESIDENT-ELECT OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA ON 1st, APRIL 2015

I am immensely grateful to God for this day and for this hour. I feel truly honoured and humbled that the Nigerian people have so clearly chosen me to lead them. The official announcement from INEC was the moment the vast majority of Nigerians had hoped and been waiting for. Today, history has been made, and change has finally come. Your votes have changed our national destiny for the good of all Nigerians.

INEC has announced that I, Muhammadu Buhari, shall be your next president. My team and I shall faithfully serve you. There shall no longer be a ruling party again: APC will be your governing party. We shall faithfully serve you. We shall never rule over the people as if they were subservient to government.

Our long night has passed and the daylight of new democratic governance has broken across the land. This therefore is not a victory for one man or even one party. It is a victory for Nigeria and for all Nigerians. Millions of you have worked for this day. So many have risked life and livelihood; and others have died that we may witness this moment.

And it is with a very heavy heart that I report many deaths and injuries amidst the jubilations yesterday. We send our sincere condolences to the families and friends of those who lost their lives; and wish speedy recovery to those who suffered injuries. I appeal to all our supporters to celebrate this victory with prayers and reflection instead of wild jubilation.

May the souls of those who died rest in peace. Let us take a moment of silence to honour all of those whose sacrifices have brought us to this fine and historic hour. As the results of the election have shown, their labour has not been and will never be in vain. Democracy and the rule of law will be re-established in the land.

Let us put the past, especially the recent past, behind us. We must forget our old battles and past grievances—and learn to forge ahead. I assure you that our government is one that will listen to and embrace all.

I pledge myself and our in-coming administration to just and principled governance. There shall be no bias against or favouritism for any Nigerian based on ethnicity, religion, region, gender or social status. I pledge myself and the government to the rule of law, in which none shall be so above the law that they are not subject to its dictates, and none shall be so below it that they are not availed of its protection.

You shall be able to go to bed knowing that you are safe and that your constitutional rights remain in safe hands. You shall be able to voice your opinion without fear of reprisal or victimization. My love and concern for this nation and what I desire for it extends to all, even to those who do not like us or our politics. You are all my people and I shall treat every one of you as my own. I shall work for those who voted for me as well as those who voted against me and even for those who did not vote at all. We all live under one name as one nation: we are all Nigerians.

Some unfortunate issues about my eligibility have been raised during the campaign. I wish to state that through devotion to this nation, everything I have learned and done has been to enable me to make the best possible contribution to public life. If I had judged myself incapable of governing I would never have sought to impose myself on it. I have served in various capacities and have always put in my best.

But despite the rancour of the elections, I extend a hand of friendship and conciliation to President Jonathan and his team. I hereby wish to state that I harbour no ill will against anyone.

Let me state clearly that President Jonathan has nothing to fear from me. Although we may not agree on the methods of governing the nation, he is a great Nigerian and still our president. He deserves our support and permanent respect by virtue of the office he has held.

This is how an honourable nation treats its servants and conducts its affairs; and this is how Nigeria should be.

I look forward to meeting with President Jonathan in the days to come to discuss how our teams can make the transition of administrations as efficient as possible.

Here, I want to thank my party for selecting me as its candidate. I thank our party leaders and members for the steadfast contributions they made to bring our dream to fruition. I thank INEC, the police and all other government agencies for performing their tasks in a proper manner and for refusing to be induced to undermine the election and the democratic process.

I also wish to thank religious Leaders, traditional leaders, the media, labour unions, Civil Society organisations, organised private sector, youths and students for their roles in this election.

I give special thanks to President Obama and his timely intervention and support for peaceful and credible elections in Nigeria and for sending Secretary John Kerry and other United States officials. The European Union – especially the United Kingdom, France, Germany and other nations that were actively involved in ensuring the success of this election are equally appreciated. My sincere thanks to the United Nations Secretary General Mr Ban-Ki Moon. The Commonwealth, China, India and other Asian and Gulf states are also hereby appreciated.

Finally our brothers in the African Union and ECOWAS have truly and clearly shown and demonstrate their commitment to our democratisation process. Former Presidents John Kuffour, Amos Sawyer, Bakili Muluzi and his team are well appreciated. I must also add my appreciation for the role played by civil societies, national and International observers, other world leaders in ensuring that Nigeria holds free and fair elections.

I assure all foreign governments that Nigeria will become a more forceful and constructive player in the global fight against terrorism and in other matters of collective concern, such as the fight against drugs, climate change, financial fraud, communicable diseases and other issues requiring global response. I want to assure our fellow African nations that Nigeria will now stand as a more constructive

partner in advancing the matters of concern to our continent, particularly with regard to economic development and eradication of poverty.

Former Heads of State and Presidents Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, General Yakubu Gowon, Alh. Shehu Shagari, General Ibrahim Babangida, Chief Ernest Shonekan and General Abdulsalami Abubakar deserve commendations for their statesmanship and words of caution and counsel for peace during the tense moments of this electoral period.

Most of all, I thank the people of Nigeria for reposing their confidence in me at this trying moment. Our nation wrestles many challenges including insecurity, corruption, economic decline. I pledge to give you my best in tackling these problems.

The good people of Nigeria, your obligation does not end with casting your ballot. I seek your voice and input as we tackle these problems.

This will not be a government democratic only in form. It will be a government democratic in substance and in how it interacts with its own people.

No doubt, this nation has suffered greatly in the recent past, and its staying power has been tested to its limits by crises, chief among which is insurgency of the Boko Haram. There is no doubt that in tackling the insurgency we have a tough and urgent job to do. But I assure you that Boko Haram will soon know the strength of our collective will and commitment to rid this nation of terror, and bring back peace and normalcy to all the affected areas. We shall spare no effort until we defeat terrorism.

Furthermore, we shall strongly battle another form of evil that is even worse than terrorism—the evil of corruption. Corruption attacks and seeks to destroy our national institutions and character. By misdirecting into selfish hands funds intended for the public purpose, corruption distorts the economy and worsens income inequality. It creates a class of unjustly-enriched people.

Such an illegal yet powerful force soon comes to undermine democracy because its conspirators have amassed so much money that they believe they can buy government. We shall end this threat to our economic development and democratic survival. I repeat that corruption will not be tolerated by this administration; and it shall no longer be allowed to stand as if it is a respected monument in this nation.

I ask you to join me in resolving these and the other challenges we face. Along the way, there will be victories but there may also be setbacks. Mistakes will be made. But we shall never take you for granted; so, be rest assured that our errors will be those of compassion and commitment not of wilful neglect and indifference.

We shall correct that which does not work and improve that which does. We shall not stop, stand or idle. We shall, if necessary crawl, walk and run to do the job you have elected us to do.

I realise that the expectation of our people today is as high as their commitment to change has been strong and their belief in us unshaken. While we pledge to begin doing our best without delay, we would like to appeal to them to appreciate the gravity of our situation, so that we become more realistic in our expectations.

We will govern for you and in your interests. Your vote was not wasted.

This is not the first time Nigerians have cast their votes for us, and this is not the first time they have been counted; but this is the first time that the votes have been allowed to count. With the help of God, we pledge to do our utmost to bring forth the Nigeria you seek.

Thank you for your patience and attention.

GENERAL MUHAMMADU BUHARI, GCFR

PRESIDENT-ELECT

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA

INAUGURAL SPEECH BY HIS EXCELLENCY, PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI FOLLOWING HIS SWEARING-IN AS PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA ON 29^TH MAY, 2015

I am immensely grateful to God Who Has preserved us to witness this day and this occasion. Today marks a triumph for Nigeria and an occasion to celebrate her freedom and cherish her democracy. Nigerians have shown their commitment to democracy and are determined to entrench its culture. Our journey has not been easy but thanks to the determination of our people and strong support from friends abroad we have today a truly democratically elected government in place.

I would like to thank President Goodluck Jonathan for his display of statesmanship in setting a precedent for us that has now made our people proud to be Nigerians wherever they are. With the support and cooperation he has given to the transition process, he has made it possible for us to show the world that despite the perceived tension in the land we can be a united people capable of doing what is right for our nation. Together we co-operated to surprise the world that had come to expect only the worst from Nigeria. I hope this act of graciously accepting defeat by the outgoing President will become the standard of political conduct in the country.

I would like to thank the millions of our supporters who believed in us even when the cause seemed hopeless. I salute their resolve in waiting long hours in rain and hot sunshine to register and cast their votes and stay all night if necessary to protect and ensure their votes count and were counted. I thank those who tirelessly carried the campaign on the social media. At the same time, I thank our other countrymen and women who did not vote for us but contributed to make our democratic culture truly competitive, strong and definitive.

I thank all of you.

Having just a few minutes ago sworn on the Holy Book, I intend to keep my oath and serve as President to all Nigerians.

I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody.

A few people have privately voiced fears that on coming back to office I shall go after them. These fears are groundless. There will be no paying off old scores. The past is prologue.

Our neighbours in the Sub-region and our African brethenen should rest assured that Nigeria under our administration will be ready to play any leadership role that Africa expects of it. Here I would like to thank the governments and people of Cameroon, Chad and Niger for committing their armed forces to fight Boko Haram in Nigeria.

I also wish to assure the wider international community of our readiness to cooperate and help to combat threats of cross-border terrorism, sea piracy, refugees and boat people, financial crime, cyber crime, climate change, the spread of communicable diseases and other challenges of the 21^st century.

At home we face enormous challenges. Insecurity, pervasive corruption, the hitherto unending and seemingly impossible fuel and power shortages are the immediate concerns. We are going to tackle them head on. Nigerians will not regret that they have entrusted national responsibility to us. We must not succumb to hopelessness and defeatism. We can fix our problems.

In recent times Nigerian leaders appear to have misread our mission. Our founding fathers, Mr Herbert Macauley, Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, the Sardauna of Sokoto, Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, Malam Aminu Kano, Chief J.S. Tarka, Mr Eyo Ita, Chief Denis Osadeby, Chief Ladoke Akintola and their colleagues worked to establish certain standards of governance. They might have differed in their methods or tactics or details, but they were united in establishing a viable and progressive country. Some of their successors behaved like spoilt children breaking everything and bringing disorder to the house.

Furthermore, we as Nigerians must remind ourselves that we are heirs to great civilizations: Shehu Othman Dan fodio’s caliphate, the Kanem Borno Empire, the Oyo Empire, the Benin Empire and King Jaja’s formidable domain. The blood of those great ancestors flow in our veins. What is now required is to build on these legacies, to modernize and uplift Nigeria.

Daunting as the task may be it is by no means insurmountable. There is now a national consensus that our chosen route to national development is democracy. To achieve our objectives we must consciously work the democratic system. The Federal Executive under my watch will not seek to encroach on the duties and functions of the Legislative and Judicial arms of government. The law enforcing authorities will be charged to operate within the Constitution. We shall rebuild and reform the public service to become more effective and more serviceable. We shall charge them to apply themselves with integrity to stabilize the system.

For their part the legislative arm must keep to their brief of making laws, carrying out over-sight functions and doing so expeditiously. The judicial system needs reform to cleanse itself from its immediate past. The country now expects the judiciary to act with dispatch on all cases especially on corruption, serious financial crimes or abuse of office. It is only when the three arms act constitutionally that government will be enabled to serve the country optimally and avoid the confusion all too often bedeviling governance today.

Elsewhere, relations between Abuja and the States have to be clarified if we are to serve the country better. Constitutionally there are limits to powers of each of the three tiers of government but that should not mean the Federal Government should fold its arms and close its eyes to what is going on in the states and local governments. Not least the operations of the Local Government Joint Account. While the Federal Government cannot interfere in the details of its operations it will ensure that the gross corruption at the local level is checked. As far as the constitution allows me I will try to ensure that there is responsible and accountable governance at all levels of government in the country. For I will not have kept my own trust with the Nigerian people if I allow others abuse theirs under my watch.

However, no matter how well organized the governments of the federation are they cannot succeed without the support, understanding and cooperation of labour unions, organized private sector, the press and civil society organizations. I appeal to employers and workers alike to unite in raising productivity so that everybody will have the opportunity to share in increased prosperity. The Nigerian press is the most vibrant in Africa. My appeal to the media today - and this includes the social media – is to exercise its considerable powers with responsibility and patriotism.

My appeal for unity is predicated on the seriousness of the legacy we are getting into. With depleted foreign reserves, falling oil prices, leakages and debts the Nigerian economy is in deep trouble and will require careful management to bring it round and to tackle the immediate challenges confronting us, namely; Boko Haram, the Niger Delta situation, the power shortages and unemployment especially among young people. For the longer term we have to improve the standards of our education. We have to look at the whole field of medicare. We have to upgrade our dilapidated physical infrastructure.

The most immediate is Boko Haram’s insurgency. Progress has been made in recent weeks by our security forces but victory cannot be achieved by basing the Command and Control Centre in Abuja. The command centre will be relocated to Maiduguri and remain until Boko Haram is completely subdued. But we cannot claim to have defeated Boko Haram without rescuing the Chibok girls and all other innocent persons held hostage by insurgents.

This government will do all it can to rescue them alive. Boko Haram is a typical example of small fires causing large fires. An eccentric and unorthodox preacher with a tiny following was given posthumous fame and following by his extra judicial murder at the hands of the police. Since then through official bungling, negligence, complacency or collusion Boko Haram became a terrifying force taking tens of thousands of lives and capturing several towns and villages covering swathes of Nigerian sovereign territory.

Boko Haram is a mindless, godless group who are as far away from Islam as one can think of. At the end of the hostilities when the group is subdued the Government intends to commission a sociological study to determine its origins, remote and immediate causes of the movement, its sponsors, the international connexions to ensure that measures are taken to prevent a recurrence of this evil. For now the Armed Forces will be fully charged with prosecuting the fight against Boko haram. We shall overhaul the rules of engagement to avoid human rights violations in operations. We shall improve operational and legal mechanisms so that disciplinary steps are taken against proven human right violations by the Armed Forces.

Boko Haram is not only the security issue bedevilling our country. The spate of kidnappings, armed robberies, herdsmen/farmers clashes, cattle rustlings all help to add to the general air of insecurity in our land. We are going to erect and maintain an efficient, disciplined people – friendly and well – compensated security forces within an over – all security architecture.

The amnesty programme in the Niger Delta is due to end in December, but the Government intends to invest heavily in the projects, and programmes currently in place. I call on the leadership and people in these areas to cooperate with the State and Federal Government in the rehabilitation programmes which will be streamlined and made more effective. As ever, I am ready to listen to grievances of my fellow Nigerians. I extend my hand of fellowship to them so that we can bring peace and build prosperity for our people.

No single cause can be identified to explain Nigerian’s poor economic performance over the years than the power situation. It is a national shame that an economy of 180 million generates only 4,000MW, and distributes even less. Continuous tinkering with the structures of power supply and distribution and close on $20b expanded since 1999 have only brought darkness, frustration, misery, and resignation among Nigerians. We will not allow this to go on. Careful studies are under way during this transition to identify the quickest, safest and most cost-effective way to bring light and relief to Nigerians.

Unemployment, notably youth un-employment features strongly in our Party’s Manifesto. We intend to attack the problem frontally through revival of agriculture, solid minerals mining as well as credits to small and medium size businesses to kick – start these enterprises. We shall quickly examine the best way to revive major industries and accelerate the revival and development of our railways, roads and general infrastructure.

Your Excellencies, My fellow Nigerians I can not recall when Nigeria enjoyed so much goodwill abroad as now. The messages I received from East and West, from powerful and small countries are indicative of international expectations on us. At home the newly elected government is basking in a reservoir of goodwill and high expectations. Nigeria therefore has a window of opportunity to fulfill our long – standing potential of pulling ourselves together and realizing our mission as a great nation.

Our situation somehow reminds one of a passage in Shakespeare’s Julius Ceasar:

“There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life, Is bound in shallows and miseries.”

We have an opportunity. Let us take it.

Thank you

MUHAMMADU BUHARI, GCFR

PRESIDENT AND COMMANDER IN-CHIEF-OF THE ARMED FORCES,

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA