15th December, 2017
By: Amir Abdulazeez
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et’s first admit the complexity and the difficulty
involved in actually describing what historically constitutes the party PDP or
what group of people can be seen to constitute PDP and over what time. This
complexity is more so when we continue dwelling on the assumption that PDP was
responsible for destroying this country in the preceding 16 years before APC. One
looks back and discover that many of the major actors that participated in this
so-called destruction are either not the major current drivers in the party or
are comfortably within some camps that tend to make the most noise about this
destruction. Should we then hold the current PDP composition absolutely
responsible for this 16 year destruction?
If you consider the fact that former President
Olusegun Obasanjo who served as president for eight out of those sixteen years
in question and that his two directly anointed and imposed candidates completed
the remaining eight, later abandoned the PDP pretending not to be party to all
that was wrong with the party and what it turned Nigeria into, then you will
really understand the complexity of passing a definite verdict on this
particular present PDP and other related issues.
The PDP recently conducted a convention to elect its
national leaders for the first time not as a Ruling Party but as the major
opposition party in Nigeria. Now, everyone expected the party to make
deliberate but collective and calculative sacrifices to lay a solid foundation
for a decent outing in 2019. Though the party influencers may see their choices
in that convention as justified, but many outsiders may not think so.
The PDP, whether freely and fairly or not decided to
have its National Chairman from the South-South at the expense of the apparently
unprepared, unorganized and indifferent South West, a decision some say will
help strengthen the support base of the party. After coming out of a long legal
battle necessitated by string of crises, many expected the PDP to make a better
if not a perfect decision irrespective of personal interests.
The decision not to have their chairman come from the South-West
will be a very costly one likely to cause them an already unlikely victory in
2019. The party may have just set itself on a long walk to trouble; a walk that
may last for probably more than the period it spent at the helm of affairs in
this nation. To make things worse, the old traditional fraudulent PDP ways of
doing things were still alleged to have manifested in the just concluded
elections. With the power, patronage and money the party uses in the past to
compensate and unite warring factions no longer available, the PDP will be
likely enmeshed in another cold running internal battle which the current
reconciliatory effort may likely fail to address into 2019.
The South West is the political capital of the ruling
APC and by extension of Nigerian politics. It is the second most populated
geo-political zone in Nigeria after the North-West, it is also the most politically
sophisticated. A strong Olusegun Mimiko-like PDP National Chairman from that
zone would have been far much better than an Uche Secondus coming from a zone
where PDP are under the illusion of having absolute control. It is very
important to note that the PDP support in the South East and South South is
largely exaggerated. If all post 1999 elections in those two zones were
averagely free and fair or at least as credible as in other zones, the story
would have been much different. Now with the party out of power, this illusion
will be met by a brutal reality in 2019.
One major disadvantage facing the PDP is the inability
of Nigerians to prioritize credibility of candidates and policies over party
politics and sentiments. The fact that many people who participated in
destroying Nigeria are now calling the shots in APC wouldn’t change an already
uncertain electoral fortune awaiting it in 2019. Ponder on the fact that five
out of the six PDP House of Representative Speakers that served between 1999 to
2015, are now in the APC. Roughly, one third to half of the PDP ministers and
governors that served in the same period are either in the APC or elsewhere.
The signs of open desperation already exhibited by
early leaders to hand over the presidential ticket to journeyman Atiku will
also likely tear the party apart. The likes of Sule Lamido who endured through
thick and thin to identify with the party will never take this lightly. The
sellability of Atiku and the dearth of a better powerful alternative to him are
problems in their selves. A good acceptable flag bearer for the PDP that will
match President Muhammadu Buhari who is likely to contest will be very
difficult to find and even a good Ike-Ekweremadu-like running mate from the South
East may not make much difference.
In all of this, the ruling APC will be the biggest
winners and Nigerians will be the biggest losers. Any proponent of competitive
democracy and any advocate against one-party state would like to see the
Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) remain strong and vibrant enough to keep the
ruling All Progressives’ Congress on its toes. Probably, only a fanatical APC
sympathizer would like to see PDP become extinct in the current situation. The
role of a strong opposition in a democracy cannot be overemphasized and without
opposition, democracy becomes autocracy.
There is a reason why well-meaning Nigerians wish good
for the PDP. Many neutrals have sympathy for the party neither because the
party deserves such nor because it is showing signs of deserving such any soon,
but because it is the only party that is in a strong position to keep APC on
its toes-something the governing party itself needs to be motivated. We know the
experience we went through when an almost unopposed PDP were in charge.
No matter how well outsiders wish to see things go for
PDP, it won’t be possible if the major stakeholders within the party are not
willing to put their acts together. If there were other viable opposition
options apart from PDP, majority of Nigerians would most likely go for them and
back any among them to become the major opposition party in the country. Alas!
There is none and considering what it takes to build a formidable national
political party or to transform a dormant one in Nigeria, we can say, there
would be none at least for the time being, except if an unforeseen miracle-like
situation happens.
After the 2015 General Elections, the question on the
lips of Nigerians was: how would PDP manage defeat? Others asked whether PDP
would bounce back and if yes, how and when? The problem we are facing in
Nigerian politics is that political parties are almost solely judged based on
electoral performance. Therefore, in the eyes of many, PDP would only be
considered to have bounced back if it takes over from APC at the next polls.
From the look of things, PDP itself also narrowly look at things that way.
Virtually, all 2019 calculations do not currently
favour the PDP, but we don’t know what the immediate and long term future holds.
However, the part must prepare itself for defeat as much as it is preparing for
victory. One thing the party should be thankful for though is that the culture
of free and fair elections appears to have come to stay in Nigeria.
The truth is, if PDP can still remain in existence,
strengthen its organs, engage in massive grassroots membership drive and
followership, give the nation a rebranded and innovative opposition, retain its
states and win some elusive states like Lagos and have a decent presidential
election outing in 2019, that would be enough success even if they don’t win
back the presidency in the next 8 years. The PDP should not be exclusively
looking forward to winning elections, it should think of ways it can set the
standards and become the epitome of internal democracy, de-commercialization and
de-monetization of politics, inspiring political consciousness and awareness as
well as ideology-based politicking, things the ruling APC have promised but
largely failed to do so far.
Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez
