Conditional Cash Transfer

17^th April, 2020

By: Amir Abdulazeez

I

n 2001, the Nigerian Government created the ambitious National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP). The population then was estimated to be well above 120 million with over 63% of it living below one dollar per day which as at then exchanged for between 99 to 105 naira. NAPEP may not be declared a major success even if it fairly represented an improvement over previous attempts. A 2008 analysis on African Poverty reported that the programme was able to train about 130,000 youths while engaging 216,000 beneficiaries.

There were three main problems with NAPEP; its impact was too minimal considering the large population, there were widespread allegations that many of the beneficiaries were politically selected and hence not poor and thirdly, the programme was not organized to be sustainable. Since NAPEP, the Federal Government had initiated other cosmetic initiatives like YOUWIN, SURE-P empowerments, N-Power, etc directly and indirectly aimed at reducing poverty and unemployment. Equally, many state governments have invested heavily in vocational programmes. Since the APC government came in 2015, it has also introduced Conditional Cash Transfer where vulnerable Nigerians are paid N5,000 monthly.

Will this kind of initiatives end poverty in Nigeria? I believe, the major question we should be asking as Nigerians is not about the need to fight poverty, it should be about why do we have growing poverty? Should Nigeria have any significant business with poverty? Do the current and past leaders actually understand the level of poverty in the land as well as the right strategies to fight and defeat it? Are we fighting poverty from its roots or are we only selectively relieving its symptoms? Will conditional and even unconditional cash transfer reduce poverty significantly? What is the sustainable way of defeating poverty?

Times like this pandemic are the trying periods when all that have been said about Nigeria’s poverty which hitherto appear theoretical is now experienced in real and practical terms. The main clog in the wheel regarding fighting coronavirus in Nigeria is poverty. Locking down 200 million people, out of which about 50% or more are very poor can come with dire consequences. While many modestly developed and truly developing countries are concerned mainly with the micro-economic dimensions of this crisis, Nigeria is dealing with both the micro and the macro. In fact, the micro is more critical as this is the main reason why the government appear to be giving much priority to conditional cash transfer which it apparently lacks the capacity to execute intensively and extensively without macroeconomic consequences.

In 2017, Nigeria with 94.5 million extremely poor people representing 47.2% of the population, was declared the world’s poverty capital overtaking India with 70 million poor people or 5.1% of their population. Carried away with its ‘largest African economy’ status, the government instead of reflecting and getting back to work immediately, rather went on denial. Today, what the authorities denied verbally, they have been forced to accept practically as it is obvious that the government is facing more headache from the consequences of measures taken to fight Covid 19 than the actual disease itself.

For example, how do you ask a people you have deprived clean drinking water to wash their hands with running water frequently or a population in which a significant percentage are either homeless or semi-homeless to practice social distancing? It is evident therefore, ever since majority of Nigerians have been fighting with a bigger virus, much bigger than corona. How did we get here?

Just yesterday, the Daily Trust reported that the Nassarawa State Government spent over 500 million naira to procure ‘official’ vehicles for the state law makers. According to the paper, the 24 vehicles cost about 21 million naira each. This is happening amidst the coronavirus pandemic in which the state is reported to have no single government-owned ventilator which cost between 9 to 18 million. The picture on the paper’s story showed the Speaker of the State House Assembly and his crew shamelessly and satisfactorily inspecting the vehicles as they wore face masks that give the false impression of their concern towards the current predicament.

The Nassarawa story is a summary of how governments at all levels had been behaving towards poor Nigerians since 1999. The trillions of naira wasted on irrelevant priorities while peanuts are budgeted for the so-called poverty alleviation initiatives over the past 20 years is the major reason why majority of ordinary Nigerians are becoming poorer and poorer everyday.

Before 2017, I was of the habit of reviewing federal and state government yearly budgets; I even volunteered to translate some of them into local languages for the benefit of other readers. One general conclusion I reached was that majority of these budgets are mere recycled documents that will probably change nothing positively as far as development is concerned. As the representatives of the people, the legislature which supposed to vet these budgets and make them pro-poor end up making them more anti-people by manipulation, rubber stamping the corruption-motivated projects proposed by the executives and insertion of self-servicing fraudulent constituency projects.

If Nigeria is truly serious about alleviating poverty, it must take some solid, sincere and long-lasting measures against the cosmetic and rhetorical ones it keeps packaging regime after regime. First, it has to guarantee its citizens security at all cost. Insecurity is perhaps one of the biggest sources of poverty. Only God knows the amount of monies and sources of livelihood lost by poor and ordinary Nigerians to terrorism, armed robbery, political thuggery, kidnapping, farmers-herders’ conflicts, religious riots and ethnic unrests over the last 20 years. Many have had permanent disabilities and lost the very health they can otherwise use to stay out of poverty.

Government must provide power at all as it is the most critical sector that has the potential of automatically creating and consolidating direct and indirect jobs. For example, if there is adequate security and power supply, industries will be revamped and businesses will run for 24 hours. When some people who conduct businesses during the day are asleep, some others who were resting during the day will conduct businesses during the night. Nigerian businesses will work for 24 hours with no valuable time to waste thereby hugely increasing productivity. When power is available, thousands of jobs would be created both directly and indirectly. The idea of banning the import generators is just a laughable way of diverting attention from government failures.

Massive and not cosmetic investment in agriculture is required. As at 2016, I counted about 109 major dams and reservoirs that can support irrigation but largely underutilized across the country. I want to believe they are much more than that.  A particular state with about 26 major and minor dams that cut across almost each Local Government are among those complaining of poverty. The governors have vandalized the state resources on white elephant projects that are not only useless in terms of revenue generation, but adds burden to state finances for their maintenance. A survey conducted revealed that a 4-billion-naira investment in the irrigation scheme will generate over 2 million jobs for poor people, but no, the governors prefer straight-forward projects in urban centres that come with high returns on kickbacks. Shameless and wicked.   

Government must re-establish peoples’ trust by ensuring equity and transparency. Over the years, virtually only rich sons and daughters can secure white collar jobs while the poor are left with crumbs or nothing. While lucrative opportunities are reserved for the rich to make them richer, palliatives like Npower are established for the poor to save face. With this, national resources are channelled towards making others richer, while the poor remain poorer. A poor university graduate that can secure a job with NCC, NNPC, CBN or FIRS can gradually pull the whole of his family out of poverty. But he can’t dare get such opportunities unless on rare occasions.

The Local Governments are major shock absorbers in terms of poverty reduction. For the past 10 years, everyone concerned had folded their arms and watched while the state governments have massacred them and rendered them useless through hijacking their responsibilities as well as withholding and siphoning their funds. Many of the states consume their resources and expend them on political projects that yield no financial dividend for the future. We hardly hear states investing in agriculture, industrialization and tourism.

The absence of a national development plan has given way to the politicization and inconsistencies of government activities at the federal and state levels. Government projects are not initiated along any short or long-term development plan but rather based on political sentiments. At the states, hardly, can you find a state with any long-term development plan which is continuous and consistent; even states that have been governed by one party since 1999 experience planning inconsistencies and policy summersaults. Right from 1999, if the states had made it an objective to truly eradicate poverty, many would’ve achieved significant progress by now.

Right now, Nigerians are part of the global community being held hostage by this pandemic. Many poor people are likely to be affected in high proportions. The post-pandemic period will likely come with additional economic challenges. After all these, we must return to fighting against our main virus which is the poverty that was artificially imposed on us by people who called themselves our leaders.

It is unfortunate that we have reached a level where we cannot get the most basic things right in this country and nobody is held responsible. At different levels, we are governed by heartless leaders who can maim and kill their own people with impunity to stay in power while the constitution grants them immunity. In our country, truth has been reduced to a mere opinion. Under these conditions, it is only a matter of time that every Nigerian become vulnerable and then eligible for conditional cash transfer.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Corona: More than a Virus

17^th March, 2020

 

By: Amir Abdulazeez

W

hen America killed the Iranian Commander of the Quds Forces, Major General Qasem Soleimani barely three days into the new year 2020, only few people believe that by now there wouldn’t be a full blown war not just involving the two countries, but one which may well set the path to another World War. Soleimani was killed by a drone near the Baghdad Airport while he was reportedly planning to meet Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi to discuss Iran-Saudi Arabia peace mediation in Baghdad.

Although, some tension-escalating events like the attack on the American embassy in Baghdad among others that followed the assassination represented some serious threats, but the current situation now suggests that the US-Iranian conflict is no longer an issue taking centre-stage, at least for now. The two countries involved and the world at large are now fighting a different unprecedented battle against a common global enemy, a war against corona virus.

When coronavirus was announced as an emerging pandemic on the 20^th January in South Korea, some media outlets termed it ‘Chinese’ coronavirus. Little did anyone know that it will soon become global. At about the same time, China’s National Health Commission had reported only the third death from coronavirus, the number of infected having increased by 136 during the previous two days. That report came after Chinese authorities had confirmed that the virus had spread from the Wuhan Province to major cities, including Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong. Two months later, we are now talking of the virus covering about 83% of the world’s countries in a manner so rapid mysterious that raises more questions than experts can answers.

The latest updates on the virus reveals that about 160 countries across all inhabited continents have recorded at least a case and about 100 countries have between 50 to 100 cases. Prior to this, the total cases confirmed in Europe as at 31^st January was probably not up to a hundred. Presently, China still tops the list with over 82,000 cases, Italy which about six weeks ago had only 2 cases or so is second with about 28,000 cases, Iran has over 16,000, Spain over 11,000 and South Korea about 8,500 cases making 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th worst affected nations respectively. Every hour, these figures change for the worse and every 24 hours, the worsening situation escalates geometrically depending on territories. For example, there have been 13,903 new cases and 862 new deaths globally from yesterday. Only God knows how many other possible unreported cases exist.

What is corona virus? It sounds quite odd that despite been a global pandemic, many of us have still not taken time to truly know what the virus is. The word ‘Corona’ itself is a biological term. In Anatomy it refers to the crown-like upper portion of a bodily part or structure, such as the top of the head. In Botany, it is a crown-shaped, funnel-shaped, or trumpet-shaped outgrowth or appendage of the perianth of certain flowers, such as a daffodil. The World Health Organization (WHO) described Coronaviruses (CoV) as large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people.  Detailed investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans and MERS-CoV from dromedary camels to humans. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans.

Coronavirus disease is a new strain that was discovered in 2019 (hence the code COVID-19) and has not been previously identified in humans before now. Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death. Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

We have had many pandemics in history. From the small pox that reportedly killed millions in 1520 to the Asian Flu that killed 1.1 million between 1957-1958, the world has seen enough. In this millennium, SARS, Swine Flu, MERS and Ebola (all largely regional pandemics) have been responsible for the death of over 210,000 people. Corona may not be the deadliest, but it is proving to be one of the most historical in contemporary times because of its spatial coverage and temporal brutality. It has generated a chain of events that are changing the course of history.

Before now, the last time Iran asked for IMF loan was 1962. Price of crude oil per barrel is below $30, down from about $65 in early January. The Saudi Arabia authorities have reportedly suspended all Umrah (lesser Hajj) activities with the main 2020 Hajj itself billed for August/September in serious in doubt. Multi-billion-dollar sporting events are now cancelled and postponed with Euro 2020 football competition becoming the latest victim. International and local flights have been grounded with over 90% cancelled. Cities are now on lockdowns; public places are shut down almost everywhere. Leaders of countries and highly-placed government officials are testing positive for the virus. The US-President Donald Trump was recently pressured by the public outcries to subject himself to a test.

Although, the global confirmed cases are still a little below 200,000 as at now and total deaths still below 10,000, the global population are in panic. Over 7 billion people are concerned about the mystery surrounding the diseases living under the fear that any place and anyone could be next. The over $88 trillion global GDP from 193 economies is facing its worst uncertainties. Virtually everything and everyone has been directly or indirectly affected by the virus.

In all these, there is a big lesson for Africa and Nigeria. Africa is lucky yet that the pandemic is still not an epidemic in the continent, but this should call for caution and more preparation and not the complacency and mockery circulating that black people have immunity and all that. The bigger lesson we however have to learn is the need to start giving attention to our health sector which we have not taken seriously over the years. Our health sector is not only one of the worst, but also one of the most inadequate and inefficient and we are doing little or close to nothing to fix it. That our leaders can no longer travel for medical trips because of Corona, at least for now should force them to fix the facilities we have here and provide the ones we lack.

Health budgeting must improve from states to federal. The federal Government budgeted only N441.5 billion (4%) for the entire health sector. This is about N2000 per citizen for the whole year. Kano for example with a population of about 20 million has since 2011 spent over N50 billion on white elephant flyovers and underpasses while its health sector is overstretched to a limit beyond comprehension. In situations like these that we can barely provide routine healthcare, how can we deal with epidemics and pandemics successfully?

The first few weeks of the 2020 gave us a hint about the year to expect. The continuation of the Australian bushfires from 2019; the stampede at Soleimani’s funeral killing 56 people and injuring 213; a magnitude 6.4 earthquake in Puerto Rico; renewed Boko Haram atrocities with 30 people killed in Gamboru, Borno State; about 50 people killed and over 19,000 displaced as flash floods hit the Indonesian capital of Jakarta; 36 people killed and others injured after a building under construction collapses in Kep, Cambodia. All of these happened in the first seven days of 2020. As if that was not all, the next week started with a Boeing 737-800 crashing (later reported to have been ‘mistakenly’ shot by Iranian authorities) while taking off from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport, killing all 176 people on board.

The truth is that 2020 has been a tough year for the world so far. Many countries have been taking additional measures to absorb the shocks provided by the year and preparing to navigate and end it on a stronger note. With Corona proving to be more than just a virus, Presidents are addressing citizens giving them assurances on measures taken to put the situation under control medically, economically and socially. Here in Nigeria, we are above 2020, we have started talking of 2023.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

A Word on the Nigerian ‘Activist’

18^th August, 2019

By: Amir Abdulazeez

W

hen renowned columnist Mohammed Haruna was appointed INEC National Commissioner from North Central in 2016, he wrote a farewell article which was published in some national dailies. In that article, he reflected on what it took to become a newspaper columnist when they began writing in the late 1970s and what it took now; he also discussed the future of writing columns. One critical and interesting thing I understood from his submission was that the business of writing columns was no longer prestigious these days as virtually anyone with averagely good writing skills can become a columnist and with the rise in the popularity of social media, publishing and publicity was not much of an issue.

When I was done reading that article, I concluded that quackery had taken over the business of writing columns and opinion pieces. Until some ten to fifteen years ago, newspaper columns were written by patriotic, informed, experienced and privileged experts who have a full grasp of the past, a clear understanding of the present and insight into the future. Before now, many people buy newspapers only to read back page columns and some opinion pieces inside the paper. Today, as Haruna asserted, everyone with average understanding of issues can write on virtually anything and publishing is not his problem. This had led to the proliferation of our media spaces with heaps of debris that have helped in compounding instead of addressing issues.

The case of activism appears to be worse. While writing requires some basic and sometimes thoughtful skills even by Nigerian standards, activism appears to be a vague activity down here. You can hardly define what actually constitutes activism or what it takes to become an activist. This is why despite some decent efforts; we are still struggling to bring out significant and impacting relevance out of our different non-governmental struggles to change the course of events in this country.

While activism is conventionally used to refer to any direct or indirect action employed in attempts to bring about social or political change in a society, but for the sake of analysis in the Nigerian context, let’s just consider it to refer to any activity employed by people who have any cause or belief to express disagreement with government or its activities.

The lack of a defined framework for what activism should be has made virtually any anti-government activity irrespective of how silly to pass as activism these days. This is the reason why the boundaries between partisanship, opposition, advocacy, struggle, criticism, character assassination, abuse, irresponsibility and even treason is very blurred and indistinctive. The conflicting methods of carrying out all these are even more unclear, confusing and indistinguishable. This perhaps may be partly responsible for the reason why government find it so easy to declare groups as terrorists and dissenting voices as enemies.

In another clear and apparent inadequacy of government responses and attempts to have control over these activities, today invitations, arrests, kidnappings and abductions virtually look the same. People are arrested without warrants, sometimes in the most bizarre of circumstances in the name of holding them accountable for things they wrote, causes they advocate for or against and groups they align with, making government suspicious whenever any critic gets missing or harmed.

We cannot deny the fact that the position of activism in our society today is more of an avenue to get fame, relevance and money rather than the desired change it appears to be yearning for. The patriotism and sincerity required to change a country is simply lacking in our brand of activism. This is why everyone with a substantial following on social circles, no matter how ignorant or uninformed will quickly declare himself an activist and begin to see his opinion as an authority which attracts strong rebuke when challenged.

It is also glaringly clear that many of our so-called critics are using activism as a platform to make inroads into politics especially when the conventional way of doing so is dotted with so many barriers which they don’t have the financial and political power to overcome. This is why we see many so called activist accepting positions in governments that are clearly at variance to what they claim to stand for. It is also not unconnected with why so many of these activists failed in government when called to serve. For these reasons, we see activism working and leading to change of regimes in many countries including Africa, while it is close to insignificant down here.

Despite all these lapses, people in power should have no justification to harass and indiscriminately attempt to silence activists. It would be better to look inwards and attempt to correct or to take care of those issues which give the activists the avenue to rant and express disagreement. If leaders can have the attention to notice criticisms and critics, they should have the courage to address issues raised rather than attempt to suppress those criticisms. If politicians can accept praises unconditionally even if they don’t deserve them, they should have the bravery to tolerate criticisms.

I once received a call from an associate asking me to take down an article I circulated online. The article was a brief reaction around early 2016 when a State Government in Northern Nigeria published the extracts to one its weekly State Executive Council meetings and my attention was drawn to the approval of the council of hundreds of millions of naira to train selected youths on social media skills. I refused to take down the article. What I did instead was to reread the article severally and see if there was anything written that warrants even an apology, but I couldn’t find a single one. That associate of mine later opened up that my arrest was contemplated before they asked him to talk to me. It’s very sad that rather than digesting the suggestions I offered in that article, those responsible chose to indirectly threaten me. It is very wrong and unthinkable to attempt to suppress ones God-given rights to react to issues within the confines of the law.  

The big mistake of people in power is wanting leadership without responsibility; they want to enjoy the privileges and paraphernalia of office but they don’t want to endure the burden and criticisms that comes with it. The best way to avoid too much criticism is for a government to play by the rules and deliver effectively. However, even the best of administrations never escape criticisms. A government that doesn’t obey the laws of the land is the biggest threat to the progress of any nation and the public officials that seek to enjoy the privileges of leadership without wanting to endure its burden of responsibility are the biggest liability to any government.

While government must trade with justice and tolerance in dealing with criticisms, activists must also operate with caution and responsibility. Governments are populated with human beings like you who have feelings and families. It is only natural if they get disturbed when you spread falsehood and half-truths against them. People must be well informed before they discuss issues. This, in addition to Mohammed Haruna’s wise words is the reason why for about seven years I have been very reluctant towards fully accepting the offer of becoming a regular columnist for many news outfits. When you are compelled to write every week, even if you may not have anything substantial to say in certain periods, you may end up going against the ethics just to produce something for the readers, especially if your knowledge of issues isn’t as deep as others might have been expecting.

For activists to make any significant progress in influencing how things are done in this country, they must do away with the bad eggs among them; those who are all out to abuse and assassinate the character of responsible people just because we have freedom of expression or because such people are in power or politics. We must never stand or support activist who area clearly unethical or whose motive is confirmed to be self-centred and self-serving. We must not continue to cheer people when they are busy spreading abuses against leaders only to start trending for their release when they get arrested. Critics must also be ready to tolerate and accept criticisms.

Another important thing is to adhere to international best practices in advocacy and campaigns for social and political change. We shouldn’t praise and criticize blindly; we should learn to agree with government and support it when it is right. Our obsessions should also not be on government and politicians alone. We have so many anti-people tendencies perpetrated in the private sector as well as many social community ills which we are largely ignoring.

Activism must also have some discipline, organization and focus as well as sustainability and non- political alignment to make meaningful impact. Nigerian activists don’t seem to have much synergy within their ranks; their activities are disjointed, uncoordinated and short-lived. When they occasionally come together, their incompatibility due to individual biases becomes irreconcilable. In this regard, we have a lot to learn from the proponents of the Bring Back our Girls Struggle which is by far one of the most organized, impactful and sustained non-partisan struggle in recent history. It had its own lapses during and after the struggle, but as a whole, it was spectacular and enduring.  

Government and people in government are the biggest stakeholders in almost everything. If a government doesn’t have the endurance to tolerate criticism, how on earth does it think it has the competence to deliver? Public officers must look at the substance of criticism and not the critics, and this with the intention of addressing issues. When you are presiding over peoples’ common wealth, you must be ready to hear them out. If it is inevitable that activists or critics must be arrested, it should be done within the confines of the law and people’s offence must be clearly defined, and offenders or suspects must be properly charged to court rather than kept for days under secret custody.

All in all, no activism can change a society if its basic tenets are not laid on a solid foundation. For example, how do you make progress in a country which its constitution empowers leaders to become criminals without consequence?

I was recently introduced to an online forum of African discussants on how to influence and change the focus of governance in the continent and I was surprised when someone from far away Uganda asked me whether it is true that Nigerian leaders are so corrupt that they openly stash dollars in their pockets? I was thinking of an appropriate answer when another discussant from South Sudan quickly chipped in and said, he read somewhere that some people were recently arrested for organizing a revolution to change that situation. After some few laughs, many wondered if certain things reported about Nigeria are actually possible in such a powerful country. Referring to me, the moderator asked but where are you, the activists. I jokingly replied, I am not an activist.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

INEC: Beyond the Postponement

17^th February, 2019

INEC Chairman: Prof. Mahmoud Yakubu

By: Amir Abdulazeez

T

he first person that came to my mind when I was given three lengthy ballot papers to vote in the 2015 Presidential and National Assembly Elections, was the typical uneducated Nigerian voter. While I cast the votes, I had many thoughts; how will the average unsophisticated voter sort out and know the difference between each ballot and what time will it take each voter to locate the party he wants and vote for it without spoiling the ballot? How can we guarantee the credibility and integrity of an election largely decided by the bandwagon effect? Why will INEC ignore the nature of the Nigerian voters and combine many elections together just because it apparently wants to save cost?

True to my thoughts, when the results for that polling unit was made available later in the day, close to 10% of the votes were invalid. Apart from APC and PDP, the two leading contenders, no party was able to secure more than five votes out of a possible 1000 in that polling unit.

Sometimes, you sit down and wonder why we deliberately do certain things that are neither useful nor necessary? Why do we need to add to our logistical burden by having close to 100 useless parties that are not serving any purpose? Will Nigerians still not have abundant reasonable options in five to ten parties? How has the political system improved with the continuous registration of these briefcase parties? Now, imagine the printing, organizational and other logistical costs that INEC will significantly cut if it were dealing with only seven parties? Apart from cost, the time and energy that will be saved is too huge to be ignored. Imagine how less confused will the voters be and the few post-election litigations that will be involved.

This makes it imminent for all stakeholders in the executive and the legislature to make sure the Electoral Act and Constitution are amended to accommodate only a manageable size of performing political parties. While winning elections is not the only function of political parties across the world, in Nigeria it seems to be the determining factor not only for recognition but for meaningful existence. With the general lack of ideological basis in the Nigerian Political Party System, only winning elections can be used to determine the strength of the political parties. For instance, the APC may be ruling Imo and Borno State, but almost nothing in terms of policies will show that the two states are being governed by the same party.

When Professor Attahiru Jega’s tenure expired as INEC Chairman in June 2015, it took President Buhari up to late October to appoint his substantive replacement; many National Commissioners and State Resident Electoral Commissioners were appointed several months after the tenure of their predecessors expired. Some states were without RECs for more than a year. These things may look inconsequential over four years, but the truth is they are the kind of issues that accumulate to mar painstaking preparations of several months.

Many Nigerians never expected the 2019 General Elections to take place without an amended, comprehensive and reforming Electoral Act in place. Unfortunately, the bad politics between the presidency and the National Assembly had greatly ensured that we are deprived of one. How does it feel to go into an election under an act that doesn’t even properly recognize the card reader which is currently the most important electoral instrument? How about operating under a system that doesn’t even have decisive punishment for election riggers?

We are all witnesses to how the 2019 Election Budget presentation and consideration was deeply politicised. We clearly saw how selfish interest superseded national interest in broad day light. We all saw how INEC got its funding very late because some people who love themselves more than their country also double as our leaders. Given circumstances like these, we must start thinking of a more reliable funding mechanism for the commission in the future. Let us not even talk of the lingering judicial battle over election sequence between the Presidency and INEC and the National Assembly on the other. In general, politicians have not been helping matters for INEC. The Zamfara and Rivers State APC cases are clear testimonies to this.

This is not to absolve INEC of all blames. However, it is to acknowledge the fact that the dilemma the commission found itself was caused by so many other stakeholders whether directly or indirectly. One of the shortcomings of INEC is that it has for long retained staff that are largely corrupt, dormant and incompetent. That election is a four year exercise doesn’t mean staff should abandon their duty posts for months until when the election is near. This has contributed in largely making INEC full time staff at some levels being little or no different from the Ad-hoc staff in terms of performance and readiness for the job. With such kind of staff, many of INEC’s problems are from within.

Historically, to be fair to INEC, the first time it really had the independence to prepare and conduct an election was in 2011. Not much can be said of 1999 when it was under the direct supervision of the military, but it is clear to all of us that in 2003 and 2007, results were apparently written even before the elections. During those days, INEC need not to care about any preparation or lack of it, nor of the consequences that comes with. Those elections had a predetermined outcome. Abel Guobadia and Maurice Iwu’s INEC apparently didn’t care of any credibility or legitimacy issue that will arise from the elections they conduct.

If we observe, any election post 2007, have seen INEC becoming gradually more independent and hence its preparations mattered. All the postponements and inconclusiveness of elections conducted in recent years are perhaps a testimony that the commission can now take decisions with little or no interference and that it is willing to do things right. In 2011, when we began to get a semblance of an election, the commission had to postpone the exercise after polling had begun. Therefore, as painful and costly as these postponements are, they represent some progress on the part of INEC. The only problem is when it keeps repeating them.

It is surprising that this government under President Buhari, who was a serial victim of Electoral fraud have done close to nothing towards electoral reform. One of the key attributes of periodic exercises is improvement upon past experiences until a certain level of perfection is attained. It is sad that the current INEC doesn’t represent a better one than 2015, even if it is not worse.

Already, this election is expected to witness a huge voter apathy even before the postponement and with the postponement, it can only get worse. How Nigerians are gradually getting disinterested in the voting and political process is a subject of discussion for another day. However, before we set to comprehensively address all these issues by 2023 General Elections, there are some issues the recent last minute election postponement by Yakubu’s INEC had raised that need to be urgently addressed.

Henceforth, INEC must consider postponement as the very last resort. Depending on the law, if conducting the elections can hold over three voting days in certain areas to take care of unforeseen problems, so be it. All ad-hoc staff should be recruited and trained at least two weeks before the election and then the postings may be delayed to avoid compromise. The commission can conduct a final review of its preparedness at least a week before the election and come out with a solid decision that will not change except in the case of a serious emergency beyond its control and not logistics.

With people risking their lives by travelling long distances to vote, INEC must consider making the PVC flexible enough to allow people vote anywhere they are at least in the presidential elections. It must also look at the possibility of allowing voting by postage from any location around the country and make arrangement for transparency in handling posted votes. With the amount of money INEC is gulping, it has no excuse in failing to do things as simple as this.

INEC can look into the possibility of taking advantage of technology to make room for online voting. A secured platform can be set up which a voter can log in, enter his PVC details and vote the candidates of his or her choice and find  a way of making the process effective, transparent and reliable. We are in the 21^st century; we cannot afford to be wasting lives and resources just because of a voting process whose outcome doesn’t even guarantee the safety and quality of those lives.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

2019: Another Opportunity for Hope

3^rd January, 2019

By: Amir Abdulazeez

T

he death of Nigeria’s first executive and only Second Republic President, Alhaji Shehu Aliyu Shagari, GCFR few days ago, have taken many of us back into the history books and archives to refresh ourselves on events that shaped and defined the life, administration and other issues related to the ex-president. With the death of Chief Alex Ekwueme, Shagari’s Deputy last year and the man himself as well as many others before them like Ummaru Dikko, the major and leading stakeholders of the Second Republic are all but gone.

One of yesterday’s main men who is also a leading Second Republic political figure, now a nonagenarian and still alive, Alhaji Tanko Yakasai was once reported to have said that all the current Nigeria’s political and socio-economic problems have their genesis from the 1983 coup, a coup that didn’t only toppled President Shagari but truncated democratic rule that was just over four years old, established after about 14 years of military dictatorship.

One may easily dismiss Alhaji Yakasai’s claims as those of someone who was a personal victim of the coup, however probing further; there is a lot of substance in it. One, Nigeria was never better off in the long run after the coup. In fact what is happening today is far worse than what hypothetically led to the coup. General Muhammadu Buhari who took over may have made visible significant attempts towards stabilizing the situation in bis own way, but generally speaking, the post-coup era which ushered in the military quartet of Buhari himself, Babangida, Abacha and Abdussalmi never made the nation better than the pre-coup era.

Secondly, history has shown that democracy is about learning and maturing over time. Truncating it after six years like in 1966 and after just four like in 1983 denied it of the adequate time and opportunity it required to thrive. Many have argued that the problems of democracy can only be solved by more democracy. The inadequacies we are seeing in our polity today would all have been experienced, solved and learned from thirty five years ago and today we will only need to be reflecting and reaping from the benefits of the past experience, if democracy had been allowed to thrive.

The year 2019 is significant in different respects; it is not only an election year, it represents a democratic milestone of 20 uninterrupted years that had witnessed five (and potentially six in few weeks) elections that ensured power changed hands between civilians. By African standards, this is a big reason to be hopeful, for if this can be sustained, our challenges would be overcome in due course.

From the general break down of internal security to territorial defence threats, massive corruption to electoral fraud, unprecedented poverty to social challenges, the journey has been very turbulent from 1999 to date. Nonetheless, the solutions are still within if the system and process can be sustained and improved with deliberate attempts through policies and reforms sincerely, consistently and diligently implemented while also doing away with the one-step-forward and two-steps-backward disease that have been bedevilling us over the years.

For example, in due course every region, tribe and religion will get the adequate opportunity to rule. No region will rule or call the shots forever just like none will remain marginalized till eternity. No one thought in the near future, a minority like Dr. Goodluck Jonathan will defy all odds to emerge and remain president. Therefore, a time will come when all regions must have ruled and people will realize that all that matters is good governance and not who the governor is. This is evident from the fact that Nigeria’s current president and commander in chief is from the North, about 90% of the heads of the nation’s security and para-security architecture he appointed are northerners, but the region is now the insecurity capital of West Africa or perhaps the whole of Africa.

Despite having enough dose of it, democracy alone even if sustained is not going to solve our problem. It must be accompanied with many conscious and deliberate efforts. The attention is traditionally always towards government, but the truth is that the bulk of development worldwide has never directly come from government. In fact, relying on government for development is a major sign of underdevelopment. Looking up to government for everything only breeds the culture of irresponsibility. The ingenuity of a people is what moves a society forward.   

One thing we need to address moving forward is the love for easy wealth and the shortcut to success syndrome prevalent among the current generation of Nigerians. Conservatively, three out of every four Nigerians do not only see money and wealth as the only guaranteed ticket to success or as the only true accomplishment, but want to acquire it easily and effortlessly. With this, the corruption mentality is always at its default settings, especially among our youths. This is why corruption does not only remain our way of life, but corrupt people remain our role models. Until and unless, we can build a society which there is a limit to what money can get you and what lack of it can deprive you, we can only dream of progress.

Some other things democracy cannot guarantee you are unity and cohesion. It may give you opportunity to establish unity of purpose among yourselves if you sincerely wish to, but cannot guarantee you anything. It is year 2019, 105 years after amalgamation of the Northern and Southern Protectorates and almost 60 years after independence, but to be a detribalized Nigerian is still a virtue. When notable Nigerians pass away, you will hear their eulogizers praising them as ‘detribalized’ as one of their top virtues. Is this not a huge minus in a century which there is probably no reasonable society left (except may be us) whose aspiration is to build a nation populated by people of the same ethnic group or religion only?

Democracy can only work when you allow it. Therefore, it cannot stop you from rendering it useless or helpless. It is quite surprising how average Nigerians have overestimated the relevance and power of the Permanent Voters Card (PVC). This is why they have an illusionary feeling that they can vote anybody out during elections. The truth is that our political process and parties have worked very hard to limit our electoral options. We have limited or no power over our choices and hence we are always left with bad options to choose from most of the time. As long as Nigerians will not summon the courage and wherewithal to back smaller parties and facilitate citizen’s candidacy, outrightly voting out nonperforming politicians and replacing them with competent ones will remain a mirage.

In all these, one last thing we have and must hold on dearly to is hope. Our current crop of leaders and stakeholders at various levels and capacities must do their best to make sure that citizens still have hope. If they can’t transform hope into substance, they must work hard not to kill it. This is not going to happen by allowing (under whatever guise) our universities to remain closed for over 50 days now or at any other time in the future. I don’t think even countries at war like Syria or those frequently under the threat of natural disasters like Indonesia will afford to keep their apex institutions of learning closed for reasons that are simply avoidable and then resort to blame trading in place of collectively addressing the problem.

In their different New Year messages, Nigerian past and present leaders have in various words and contexts encouraged us to remain hopeful, positive and optimistic. This is even when signs on ground and the realities facing us calls for so much pessimism and hopelessness. Within these few weeks of festivities, I had to personally counsel many young Nigerians to not give up and keep their hopes for a better country alive, even if I myself don’t have much of that hope left inside me. In a country where a huge scandal like that which exposed a state governor on video allegedly receiving bribe in dollars can disappear into thin air within weeks, how can you convince yourself and others to remain optimistic? All 2019 prophecies notwithstanding, I’ll go with our elders who will say, hope is the only reason why we are still alive.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Before We Move to the Next Level

29^th December, 2018

By: Amir Abdulazeez

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s frightening and devastating as the current security situation in Nigeria, particularly in the North is, it may concern many of us that what we don’t know may far be more than what we know regarding the current spate of violence, atrocities and senselessness bedevilling the land. For example, about forty kidnapping, robbery and related incidences were locally reported in communities within five local government areas of Katsina State in the space of one month, but virtually none managed to make a story in our major national dailies or broadcast media houses within the first five days of occurrence; more than two third of these incidences were never even mentioned out of the localities they occurred at all.

Months before this plethora of lawlessness, a single kidnapping incident in which 20 million Naira ransom was reportedly paid in one of the five local governments in question occurred, with only few people outside the state being aware. Let’s keep in mind, this is the Commander-in-Chief’s home state; let us not even mistake how daring and reckless criminals can be in other states. In this country, we now have territories literally ruled by criminals.

If we should restrict ourselves to what we already know across different states, we can see that we are in far more serious trouble than we are imagining. Add this to the fact that so many communities are suffering from different forms of insecurities which are either under-reported or completely unreported. Take a break to also consider the fact that aside physical insecurity, a typical average Nigerian is not completely free from one form of basic social or economic insecurity or the other.

From persistent terrorism to banditry, violence to senseless killings, conflicts to brutal jungle justices; the insecurity situation is a highlight to where Nigeria is heading to if something urgent and decisive is not done. It is no longer a question of putting in the best efforts; it is of compellingly doing what is required. The truth is, citizens now fear criminals far more than they fear authority and many will not hesitate to pledge their allegiance to rogues, if that is what will make them safe.

May be, we have been used to so much abnormalities for quite long, hence we take so many things for granted. Just think of any one country that will under any circumstance allow all its universities to be closed for over 50 days without any resumption date in sight. It doesn’t matter what the excuse is or who the blame goes to, but just consider the social, economic and political price the whole nation will have to pay. A recent report revealed that incessant strikes have kept Nigerian universities closed for a cumulative period of three good years over the last twenty. Three years is roughly enough to raise and graduate a complete generation of Nigerians. How many nations on earth, irrespective of their status will allow that under any guise?

Let’s forget about the elites and ruling class and ask ourselves as ordinary Nigerians, how much are we concerned by these developments for which we are the direct victims? While our emotions and lamentations always appear to be high whenever there is an incident, we don’t appear to be seriously concerned afterwards, at least serious enough to unite in forcing stakeholders to solve the problem. Before the elections, we were divided more on regional and ethno-religious grounds, now that the elections are close, we are more divided between ‘moving to the next level’ and ‘getting Nigeria working again’. As sad as it may seem, many only see these insecurity issues from the prism of the 2019 elections.

Only few have consistently and unshakably stood for justice and righteousness all along. The destructive threat of politics to our collective well-being cannot be underrated. Politics is a deadly negative weapon in this country. You can deploy it to scuttle almost anything. The most tactical way to kill the substance of any serious issue in this country is to politicize it.

Politics is being played as if every year is an election year. The talk of 2019 began right in 2015 and some have even started talking of 2023. This is so, even if we are yet to truly reform the political process to make it all-inclusive as against the exclusive right of the rich and privileged. The political players aren’t collectively concerned with our current journey to nowhere. The few of them who do are apparently because they’ve lost out in the current political game or trying to get relevance in the next.

Let us not be fooled by Nigeria seemingly functioning as a nation despite not being one. The only reason why it looks so by the way is because the elites basically function as a nation through the government, but not the citizens, which are most critical. To put this into perspective, think of some basic things a citizen require from his nation or state. A citizen wants to assuredly feel his life and properties as generally safe and secured by the state or at least to feel satisfied by its efforts in doing so. A citizen wants unrestricted access to basic justice when he is directly or indirectly wronged even by the state itself. A citizen wants hope of a better future by the state, which gives him reason to unite and work comfortably with his fellow countrymen irrespective of their social, economic and political differences. No visible foundation for the provision of any of these three in Nigeria presently.

Any politicking or agenda that is not set to fix this is bound to fail. It is most unfortunate that after decades of military rule, we didn’t really get the fresh start to nationhood that we deserved from 1999. Rather, we got plunged into one destructive crisis after another. The only probable reason why Nigeria is still standing and appears to be working is because the elites are united by selfish interest which is well served.

There is something fundamentally wrong with how problems are approached in Nigeria both individually and collectively. The sweep-it-under-the-carpet approach, just-condemn-and-appear-to-be-doing-something style, God-will-intervene rhetoric and the ‘we-are-doing-our-best syndrome’ are yet to decisively solve any problem so far. Unless issues are resolved amicably and immediately as they arise, they compile and make future issues inevitable and worse. Whether we accept it or not, any attempt at prosperity will woefully fail without fixing the fundamentals.

For example if bandits exists but do not attack for the next one year doesn’t mean the problem has been solved, for they can choose to attack any time. If bombs do not go off in motor parks for months, but we still have people who can and are willing to make and detonate bombs at any given opportunity, the problem is alive and potentially active. When people are very much conscious of the inability of our justice system to timely and adequately prosecute criminals, they will never be discouraged from crime. If thugs are aware that no matter how much they are fought and neglected by authority, they will still be employed during elections by the same people, violence will never be defeated. How many security personnel would be willing to die or get incapacitated for a country in which he is not even sure of a befitting burial, not to talk of his retirement benefits?

In situations like this, it’s difficult for superficial solutions to work. Only far reaching steps that will address the problems from the root will suffice. To do this, a society with justice, equity and equality before the law must be put in place. Government may be sincere and determined to use all within its immediate powers to tackle some issues, but unless the ruling class all directly or indirectly agree to keep politics aside and agree on fixing the fundamentals once and for all; real and permanent solutions would continue to elude us. The earlier this is done, the better for everyone and once we do this, we can keep moving to many more levels. Otherwise, we will be periodically changing leaders and governments only to discover that we are revolving around one place. Not only that, same problems will keep surfacing and resurfacing in different forms and times.

We began this year with insecurity and vulnerability of Nigerians to senseless killings as the major topic of discussion. Sadly, we are not only closing it with same, we are opening another year on the same note. 2018 is yet another year to forget.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez