10 Things We Have to Do Before the 2019 Elections

17^th April, 2015

Professor Attahiru Jega

By: Amir Abdulazeez

N

igeria is a nation that is famous for taking one step forward and then two or more steps backwards. Whenever one step is taken in the right direction, several other steps would be taken in the wrong one. This is probably one of the major reasons why we have failed to make a lasting and permanent progress in a lot of things.

A general belief in Nigeria and beyond is that the 1999 elections were credible with a high degree of legitimacy not because they were very free and fair (allegedly due to the military government’s interest in handing over to Obasanjo and PDP), but because they were ascertained to be largely a reflection of the peoples’ will. If we had built on the 1999 success in 2003 and 2007, probably we wouldn’t have found ourselves in the present situation whereby a mere acceptance of defeat is seen as heroism.

While the 2003 elections were believed to be possibly the worst elections in Nigeria’s recent history, the 2007 elections according to many local and international observers, could not pass the test of the minimum requirements for an average African election. Many opinions have declared that there were no elections in most parts of Nigeria in 2007.

The 2011 elections were by far better than those of 2003, but they fell short of those in 1999 in terms of credibility and acceptance. Despite their shortcomings, the 2011 elections represented a remarkable improvement and they laid a good foundation for the successful elections in 2015.

Many Nigerians believed that the 2015 elections were as good as near-perfect simply because the ruling party lost woefully. However, in reality, they were marred by serious irregularities and manipulations, only that the irregularities fell short of subverting the peoples’ will.

It is important to note that the role of credible elections in a democracy cannot be overemphasized. Both the 1999 and 2015 elections are probably not as credible as the annulled June 12, 1993 elections-believed to be the freest and fairest elections in Nigeria’s history. However, if we are to keep improving and edging closer to electoral perfection, we must build on the 2015 success. Some of the ways to do that is by doing the following things ahead of 2019;

De-registration of ‘Brief-Case’ Political Parties;

While winning elections is not the only function of political parties across the world, in Nigeria it seems to be the determining factor not only for recognition but for meaningful existence. With the general lack of ideological basis in the Nigerian Political Party System, only winning elections can be used to determine the strength of the political parties. For instance, the APC may be ruling Imo and Borno State, but almost nothing in terms of policies will show that the two states are being ruled by the same party.

Where any of the parties is lucky to have a hard working elected public office holder, his performance will translate to the success of that party and the party would be seen to have performed well in that state, seat or office. Base on this, all those brief-case political parties (who may never win any election in the next 50 years) that contributed in adding to the length of our ballot papers thereby confusing the electorates leading to high amount of invalid votes must be de-registered latest by the end of 2016 when all cases in the election petitions tribunals might have been settled. Strict registration procedures must also be put in place to discourage any non-serious party from resurfacing.

Available results of the 2015 elections a released by INEC suggests that only 8 parties managed to win at least one seat and they are; All Progressives’ Congress (APC), Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Labour Party (LP), Accord Party (AP), Peoples’ Democratic Movement (PDM), Peoples’ Progressive Alliance (PPA) and Social Democratic Party (SDP). While two-party system may limit the options of Nigerians, 8 parties are more than enough, we do not need 30 or 40 useless parties.

Election Tribunals Must Ensure Justice;

Many election outcomes across the country would surely be contested in courts. Media reports suggests that no less than 100 genuine and serious cases ranging from governorship, senatorial, house of representatives and state house of assembly elections would be filed in courts nationwide. The figure could be between 200 and 350 especially if we consider the fact that even candidates with no strong cases would still want to try their luck in court.

Elections are not perfect, that is why we have election tribunals and their duty is to ensure speedy justice. Justice must not be delayed because it is totally unfair and unacceptable for someone to continue sitting on an illegal or stolen mandate for long just because the tribunals are dragging the case for whatever reason.

Before the elections, multiple alarms of foul play have been raised in different quarters and during the course of the elections, many candidates have complained of rigging, violence, manipulation and oppression, but all INEC could do was to tell them to head to court if they were not satisfied. Therefore, it is the duty of the election tribunals to rescue the people from being governed through illegal mandates in various capacities. We have had enough of people serving out stolen two terms of 8-years in the last 12 years.

It is believed that, if the aggrieved candidates can present a good case with evidence and the courts will respond by doing a good job, many parliamentary and even governorship elections would be overturned. The courts must hear every case base on merit and should not dismiss any on flimsy technical grounds. Candidates who could prove beyond reasonable doubt that they won elections should be declared winners instead of wasting government funds by ordering for re-runs.

Many are likely to escape with illegal mandates due to their good lawyers, but all in all, the tribunals must not record a success rate of below 75%. Candidates with no serious cases can help by staying away from the tribunals and allow them to deal with serious ones. The success of the courts would determine the future confidence level of people in the judicial-electoral process. If the courts do not prove to be a solution, people will resort to winning elections at all cost to avoid going to courts.

Jega’s Reforms in INEC have to be sustained;

Professor Attahiru Jega has according to media reports made it clear that he is not accepting a renewal when his tenure ends in June. Jega has re-invented and re-shaped INEC through a set of reforms and innovations which his successor should sustain. He had laid a solid foundation for others to build upon. In building such foundation, he had to sacrifice the 2011 elections for the lasting success of forthcoming elections. Jega took over INEC in 2010 when elections were around the corner, but many expected him to reform the electoral body and conduct a unanimously acceptable election at the same time. However, few knew it was not practically possible. Jega managed to carry out some reforms and conducted an improved election in line with such reforms in 2011.

The introduction of the card readers and the sanitization of the accreditation and voting processes have helped in no small measure towards making the whole system credible. The next INEC Chairman should take us closer to electronic voting or even there by 2019.

All Elections between 2015 and 2019 should be Well Conducted;

Let us note that between 2015 and 2019, there will be governorship elections in Kogi, Bayelsa, Ondo, Edo, Anambra, Ekiti and Osun States. It is the conduct of elections in these seven states that will determine our optimism or pessimism on the 2019 General Elections. The Federal Government, INEC and all stakeholders must make sure that these elections record a remarkable improvement upon the 2015 elections with a success rate of between 85 to 95 %. The more we have credible elections, the better for the system.

Political party bigwigs and champions must jettison the habit of relocating to a state where elections are holding with the aim of winning it for their party at all cost. Let the people in every state determine what they want without external interference.

The elections tribunal are likely to annul a handful of elections and order for re-runs. Such re-runs or bye-elections must be conducted freely, fairly, peacefully and creditably.

Election Fraudsters and Offenders Must Face the Law;

Election riggers are never punished in Nigeria; even if the court settles a case, it only awards victory to the petitioner or orders for a re-run, it never punishes anyone. This is the reason behind the brazen impunity in our electoral system as people rig without being afraid of any consequences. May be this is due to the shortcomings of the Electoral Act; future Electoral Acts must come hard on riggers.

Before we amend the Electoral Act, perpetrators of different electoral crimes in the last elections must not be allowed to get away with it. The in-coming or even the out-going Federal Government should set up a panel under the Attorney General to investigate election riggings, violence, fraud, under age voting and vote buying, so that those found guilty should be immediately prosecuted.

Whenever one sees long voter queues comprising of women, poor, old, disabled and other weak people; one feels like advocating the death sentence for election riggers.

Politics must be De-Commercialized;

Nigerian politics seems to be only for the rich people or for people backed by godfathers with big purses. This is because many Nigerians are money worshipers and also politics has been turned into a big commercial and lucrative industry. This is why we witnessed excessive use of money to buy party nominations in all our elections from 2003 to date.

This anomaly is likely to continue unabated up to 2019 unless everyone decides to change. Federal, state and local governments must cut governance cost and make political appointments less attractive and lucrative. Political parties must significantly cut down the price of nomination forms and ban the use of money in party primaries and disqualify any candidate that violates. Law enforcement agencies must arrest politicians who spend more than what the Electoral Act stipulates during electioneering. Above all, citizens must stop worshiping corrupt politicians, stop selling their votes and demand nothing but service and accountability from elected officials.

INEC be made more Independent and Should Conduct LG Elections;

In the build-up to the 2015 elections, INEC’s independence was seriously threatened.  The electoral body was appeared to be bullied into accepting some decisions of the Presidency and Service Chiefs. The law has mandated INEC to fully take charge of election issues and the law must be respected and unless in emergency and unavoidable cases, no one should directly or indirectly dictate to INEC what it should do or not. Adequate legislation must be put in place to ensure complete independence of INEC and ensure that such independence is protected.

INEC’s mandate should be constitutionally extended to allow it conduct local government elections. State ‘Independent’ Electoral Commissions have been conducting nonsense in the name of local government elections since 2003. The last time we had meaningful local government elections was in 1999 when they were conducted by INEC. State governors have proven their lack of patriotism by organizing and executing fraudulent local government elections over the years and nothing in sight suggests that they are going to change. Therefore, to save the local councils, proper elections must be conducted by INEC uniformly across the country.

Level Playing Ground Should be Created;

Many a time we confuse elections to mean voting only. Voting is only one out of many activities that make up an election. Election is a process that starts right from candidate nominations, campaigns, up to settlement of petitions in election tribunals. Right from 1999 to date, we have never had a level playing ground for all parties and candidates at different stages of the election process.

Parties in power stand to enjoy many privileges and benefits. For instance, the ruling party monopolises the usage of state-owned media at little or no cost and apparently deny the opposition the use of such.  A sitting president controls the security forces to his own electoral advantage or that of his party. He uses government-owned and maintained jets for all his campaigns while the opposition would have to hire jets or alternatively ply the dangerous roads across the country for their campaigns. Incumbents have unrestricted access to campaign grounds while opposition are made to undergo many bureaucratic processes before they have a simple permission to use a venue. The federal and state governments together with the national and state parliaments must put in place adequate measures to ensure that all candidates irrespective of their parties are treated equally. Incumbents must not enjoy too much advantage over his opponents.

Nigerian electorates seem not to be well motivated either due to lack of confidence or interest in the electoral process and governance or due to hard voting conditions; hence, we have witnessed huge voter apathy in recent years. Only consistent free and fair elections, leadership accountability and good governance can revive the interest and confidence of Nigerians in government.

Another important issue is that of the bandwagon effect in Nigerian elections which is very dangerous. Many candidates were not elected base on their own merits but because their elections were conducted the same time with candidates who seem to be the peoples’ choice. Incompetent and less competent candidates have benefitted from the bandwagon effect, just as competent candidates became victims. Future elections should be conducted separately in an order which the bandwagon effect will have little or no influence.

Candidates should Emerge by Popular will;

The most popular aspirants usually lose in the party primaries probably because they don’t have money or godfathers, leaving voters to elect between bad choices or for whomever candidates the party primaries produce for them in the general elections.

Nigerian political parties must think of ways through which candidates would emerge through popular will of the people and not through the narrow interests of few people. In the last elections APC’s modified indirect primaries saw only 6,008 delegates select a Presidential Candidate for more than 170 million people while PDP used about 3000 delegates to vote for just one contender. Also, 21 delegates were alleged to have determined the PDP gubernatorial candidate for the whole of Yobe State.

If candidates emerge by popular will, the people will have little problem with whomever emerges victorious in the general elections as all the party candidates were initially determined by the people.

APC Must Lead by Example;

The All Progressives Congress is the new ruling party with enormous influence and goodwill across the country. APC should not be preoccupied with governing Nigeria only; it should also concentrate on reforming our political system. If APC wants to make history, this is the best opportunity.

From 1999 to date, the PDP had introduced many things into our political system, most of which did more harm than good. PDP introduced the Party Board of Trustees (A body whose function is largely mysterious and appears to weaken the main leadership of the party), zoning of positions which caused many divisions among Nigerians and did a lot of damage to competency, candidate impositions, undemocratic consensus in the election of party officials, encouraging party cross-carpeting, position of party leader-who appears to be even above the party constitution. All these were negative inventions which the APC also embraced and unfortunately institutionalized some of them.

The APC must immediately make a self-assessment and make necessary amendments; let this victory not get into its head. APC must champion the cause of ideology in Nigerian political party system, internal democracy, building strong parties, party supremacy, accountability and good governance, etc. If the ruling party behaves properly, all other parties trying to unseat it in 2019 will be left with no option than to follow suit.

©2015: abdulazeezamir@hotmail.com

Dalilai 7 da Suka Sa Bai Kamata a Zaɓi Kwankwaso a Matsayin Sanata ba

14 Ga Maris, 2015

Daga: Amir Abdulazeez

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ai yiwuwa idan da za a kaɗa ƙuri’a a tsakanin ‘yan Jihar Kano akan cewar ko sun yarda a yi wa Kundin Tsarin Mulkin ƙasa gyara domin Dakta Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso ya zarce a matsayin Gwamnan Kano, to ana kyautata zaton za su iya amincewa da wannan sauyi; wataƙila ma da gagarumin rinjaye. Ba don komai ba sai don cewar Kwankwaso ya yi rawar gani ƙwarai da gaske daga dawowar mulkinsa a 2011 zuwa 2015. Wannan ko kusa ba ta nufin cewar Kwankwason bai yi kura-kurai a mulkinsa ba; a’a ta na nufin cewar alkhairan da ya shuka sun rinjayi matsalolinsa a sha’anin mulkin Kano sosai da sosai, sannan kuma ya bar abubuwa na tarihi waɗanda za a daɗe ana mora kuma su sa a dinga tunawa da shi.

Kwankwaso ya samar wa da kansa gurbi na din-din-din a cikin tarihin Jihar Kano, kuma ko iya haka ya tsaya, babu wani abu da zai zo ya share wannan gurbi nasa. Me yiwuwa Marigayi Audu Baƙo da Marigayi Muhammad Abubakar Rimi ne kaɗai za su sha gabansa ta fuskar ciyar da Kano gaba a gwamnatance; sannan kuma a siyasance ya taka rawar ganin da bayan irin su Malam Aminu Kano da ire-irensa, to sai irinsu Kwankwason za a yi magana.

Masu hikima su kan ce, wani lokaci ba wai samun nasara ita ta fi wahala ba, a’a sarrafa nasarar, alkinta ta, ƙasƙan da kai a cikin ta da kuma sanin lokacin da ya kamata kada a zarce rawa da makaɗi bayan an samu nasarar. Daga dukkan alamu Gwamna Kwankwaso ya samu gaagrumar nasarar siyasa, amma ya na nema ya zarce rawa da makaɗi, ko dai da gangan ko kuma cikin rashin sani. Ya kamata jama’ar Kano su fargar da shi, su taimake shi ya dawo hayyacinsa.

Lokacin da wasu daga cikin masoya na haƙiƙa na Maigirma Kwankwaso suka dinga ba shi shawara ya tsaya takarar Sanata bisa ganin cewar wannan kujera ita ta fi dacewa da shi a wannan yanayin da ake ciki, shi kuma a lokacin sai ya ke ganin kujerar shugabancin ƙasa ce kawai dai-dai da shi. Duk da cewar ita ma takarar shugaban ƙasar da ya yi ta yi amfani kuma da ya samu nasara ana kyautata masa zaton zai yi abin kirki ƙwarai saboda ƙwarewarsa a ɓangaren zartarwa, amma bai kamata a ce bayan ya sha kaye, kuma a ce ya dawo ya na neman kujerar da ya ƙi nema tun da farko ba. Ga wasu daga cikin dalilan da suka sa bai kamata a zaɓe shi ya zama Sanatan Kano ta Tsakiya ba;

Nuna Haɗama Da Tsananin Son Mulki;

Kwankwaso ya nuna tsananin kwaɗayi da haɗamar mulki, irin wanda kusan ba a taɓa ganin irinsa a Jihar Kano ba a wannan siyasar jamhuriya ta huɗu da muke ciki. Saboda tsabar haɗama, Kwankwaso ya yi takarar kujeru biyu lokaci ɗaya; kujerar shugaban ƙasa da ta Sanata; yayin da ya tafi ya na yin takarar shugaban ƙasar da kansa, ita kuma ta Sanatan sai ya bayar da ita ajiya ana yi masa a ƙarƙashin kwamishinansa kuma surukinsa. Banda cewar wannan ya saɓa da tsarin dimokraɗiyya, adalci da sanin ya kamata, ya ma saɓa da tsarin gaskiya da kuma jagoranci. Ai ko Kano da APC ɗin mallakin mutum ne na kansa, ai bai kamata ya yi haka ba. Da wani ne ya yi wannan, da ba a san irin maganganun da Kwankwaso zai faɗa a kansa ba.

Wannan ta nuna burin Kwankwaso shi ne ya dauwama a kan mulki ba tare da ya sauka ba, ko kuma babu wanda ya cancanta sai shi. Tunda Kwankwaso ya nuna shi ya ƙasaita har ya tafi takarar shugaban ƙasa, kuma yace da gaske ya ke yi, to ai bai kamata kuma ya raba ƙafa ko ya dawo da baya, bayan an kayar da shi, yace zai nemi Sanata ba. Inda ya san ba da gaske ya ke ba, da tun farko sai ya haƙura ya nemi Sanatan.

A shekarar 1993, Injiniya Magaji Abdullahi ya tsaya Sanata a jam’iyyar SDP kuma ya yi nasara bayan ya faɗi zaɓen gwamna, haka a shekarar 1999 ya kuma yin irin haka a jam’iyyar APP amma sai Sanatan Kano ta Arewa mai ci yanzu Bello Hayatu Gwarzo ya yi nasara a kansa. To amma bambancin Injiniya Magaji da Kwankwaso, shi ba raba ƙafa ko takara biyu ya dinga yi a lokaci ɗaya ba, kuma ba ajiyar kujerar Sanatan ya bayar ba, a’a zuwa ya yi ya sake shiga zaɓe kamar kowa, kuma aka zaɓe shi.

Aikin Gwamna Daban da na Ɗan Majalisa;

Me yiwuwa idan aka ce a kaf Najeriya a yanzu babu wani Gwamna da ya ke da ƙwarewa da sanin makamar aiki kamar Kwankwaso, to ba lallai a yi kuskure ba. Wannan ma a bayyane ta ke domin shi kaɗai ne ya dawo mulki shekaru takawas bayan rabuwa da mulkin. Wannan shekaru takwas ta ba shi ilimi mai yawa a matasyinsa na ɗan kallo, kuma a dawowarsa ya yi aiki da wannan ilimi wajen samun nasarorin da ya samu. Saboda haka Kwankwaso ya na da ƙwarewa a ɓangaren zartarwa sosai. Hakan ce ta sa wasu mutanen suke ganin in da ya zama shugaban ƙasa, zai iya kawo gyare-gyare masu amfani ko kuma idan aka ba shi Ministan wata muhimmiyar ma’aikata a Gwamnatin Tarayya, zai taka rawar gani.

Duk wannan ba wai ta na nufin Kwankwaso zai samu nasara idan ya zama Sanata ba. Farko dai shi ba mutum ne ma mai girmama majalisa ba. Idan muka kalli yadda ya sa ƙafa ya shure Majalisar Dokokin Jihar Kano, ya mayar da ita ‘yar amshin Shata, ya shaƙe ta, ya maƙure ta, to ya ishe mu hujjar cewa majalisa ba wajen zuwansa ba ne. Majalisa waje ne na tattaunawa, shawartawa, bibiya, lallama da tuntuɓa kafin a gabatar da duk wani ƙuduri; duk kuwa wanda ya san Kwankwaso sosai, ya san bai dace da waɗannan abubuwa ba domin mutum ne da ake yi wa zargin ya shahara wajen yanke hukunci shi kaɗai.

Kodayake a kullum ya kan fake da cewa ya yi Ɗan Majalisar Tarayya a 1993 a ƙarƙashin Jam’iyyar SDP kuma har ma ya zama Mataimakin Kakakin Majalisa a wancan lokaci. Sai dai a gaskiya wannan kaɗai ba za ta ba shi cancantar da ake buƙata ba domin a wancan lokaci sun yi aiki ne da Shugaban ƙasa na soja, don haka su ‘yan amshin shata ne lamba ɗaya kuma ba su ma daɗe ba, Janaral Abacha ya yi waje da su.   

Zarce Gona Da Iri, Rashin Manufa;

Kwankwaso ya samu gagarumar nasara a rayuwarsa ta mulki da siyasa; wannan ce ta sa ya ke neman ya zarce gona da iri. A tunaninsa wataƙila babu wanda zai iya abu sai shi ko kuma abu in dai babu shi, to bai cika ba. Ya zama wajibi a taka masa burki a dai-dai wannan lokacin. Idan aka yi haka ma an taimakeshi domin kada duniya ta ruɗeshi ya ɗauka babu wani mai baiwa sai shi.

Bayan haka da alama shi da Shekarau gasa suke yi; wannan ya yi Gwamna, wancan ma ya yi, wannan ya yi Minista wancan ma ya yi, wannna ya yi takarar shugaban ƙasa wancan ma ya yi, don haka to bari wannan ya tafi Sanata domin ya sha gaban wannan. Kuskure ne a dinga amfani da kujerar wakilci wacce ake so a yi amfani da ita don bauta wa jama’a ta wannan hanyar.

Babu wasu alamu na zahiri da suka nuna cewar Dakta Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso ya na da wata tartibiyar manufa wacce zai aiwatar idan ya je Majalisar Dattawa ta Sanatoci; kawai burinsa ya samu kujerar. Babu mamaki bayan an zaɓe shi, idan aka ba shi wata babbar kujerar ya rabu da ita kamar yadda tsohon Gwamnan Jihar Kebbi Adamu Aliero ya yi, ya ajiye kujerar Sanata wacce jama’a suka zaɓe shi, ya tafi ya karɓi ministan Abuja kuma ƙarshe aka sallame shi daga ministan.

Majalisar Dattawa Ba Wajen Ritayar Gwamnoni Ba Ce;

Gwamnonin Najeriya, ciki har da Kwankwaso sun ɗauko wata hanya ta mayar da Majalisar Dattawa wani zaure wanda za su dinga yin ritaya ko hutawa a cikinsa. Wannan ya taimaka matuƙa wajen zubar da darajar majalisar tare da kawo mata gagarumin naƙasu wajen ci gaban ta.

Na farko dai, mafi yawan Gwamnonin Najeriya ba wata dokar kirki ko tsarin doka suka sani ba, sannan kuma idan sun sani, ba damuwa suka yi da aiki da ita ba. Hasalima, wasu daga cikinsu gani suke yi sun ma fi ƙarfin dokar. Banda kama-karya babu abinda suka saba da shi. To akan me za a zaɓe su wai su zo su yi doka? Mafi yawancinsu suna zuwa majalisar ne don wai ala dole sai sun ci gaba da mulki tunda wa’adin mulkinsu na gwamna ya ƙare, kuma mafi yawancinsu ta hanyar ƙarfa-ƙarfa suke karɓar takarar daga hannun waɗanda suke kan kujerar.

Daga 1999 zuwa yanzu, tsofaffin gwamnoni  11 ne suka zama sanatoci, yayin da 14 suka yi takara basu ci ba a tsawon wannan shekaru 16 na dawowar dimokradiyya. Amma wannan bai sa majalisar dattawan ta canza zani daga zargin da ake yi mata na kasa yin aikin da ya dace ba. Maimakon haka ma, sai ƙara taɓarɓarewa da ta ke yi dalilin shigowarsu. A yanzu haka akwai tsofaffin gwamnoni guda 9 a zauren Majalisar Dattawa yayin kuma da adadin tsofaffin gwamnoni da kuma masu barin gado waɗanda suke takarar Sanata a jam’iyyu daban-daban ya kai 26.

Kwankwaso Ba Ya Kamfen;

Duk bayan waɗannan  dalilan, shi Kwankwaso da alama gani yake kamar dole ne ma a zaɓe shi Sanata. Me yiwuwa gani ya ke yi kamar cancantarsa, isarsa da ƙasaitarsa sun wadatar, ba sai ya fita kamfen ya nemi alfarma a gurin masu zaɓe ba. Wataƙila a tunaninsa nasarorin da ya samu a matsayinsa na gwamna su za su sa shi ya samu kujerar Sanata ba hamayya.

Abin da kwankwaso ya kasa ganewa shi ne dukkan aiyukan da ya yi, ba wai alfarma ko taimako ya yi wa mutane ba. Shi ya kawo kansa da ƙoƙon bararsa a hannu tare da manufofinsa akan ya na neman sahalewar mutane da su ɗauke shi aiki domin ya zamar musu gwamna, su kuma suka ba shi dama, ya yi ƙoƙarin da zai yi kuma mutane suka ce sun yaba masa. Saboda haka idan yanzu ya na neman su sahale masa ya zama Sanata, ai ba kwanciya zai yi ya dinga taƙama da aikin da ya yi musu a gwamna ba, fitowa zai sake yi da ƙoƙon bara a hannu da buɗaɗɗiyar murya kuma ba tare da wata taƙama ba, ya bayyana manufofinsa, yace ya na neman a ɗauke shi aikin wakilci na Sanata. Idan an ga ya dace, ya cancanta, sai a zaɓe shi.

Tunda da alama Kwankwaso gani ya ke yi kamar shi zai taimakawa mutane ko kuma aiyukansa na gwamna sun isheshi, ba sai ya yi kamfen ba, to ya kamata jama’ar Kano ta tsakiya su nuna masa kuskurensa ta hanyar ƙin zaɓar sa. Nan gaba idan ya shirya wa neman Sanatan, sai ya fito ya yi kamfen ya nuna musu cewar Sanata yake nema domin maganar gwamna ta riga ta wuce.

Lado Bai Gaza Ba;

Idan mutum ya na kan kujera, kuma wa’adinsa bai zo ƙarshe ba ko kuma ya na da sauran damar ci gaba, to ba hikima ba ne canza shi, matuƙar bai gaza ba. A dukkanin sanatocin da Kano ta tsakiya ta yi daga 1999 zuwa yanzu, da wahala a samu wanda ya taka rawar ganin da Lado ya taka tun daga kan Sanata Kura Muhammed, Sanata Rufa’i Sani Hanga da kuma Sanata Muhammad Bello.

Lado ya kawo ƙudururruka masu muhimmanci a majalisa kuma ya na bayar da gudunmawa dai-dai gwargwado. Bayan haka ya kawo manya da ƙananan aikace-aikace a ciki da wajen mazaɓarsa ta Kano ta tsakiya. Idan aka yi la’akari da cewar wannan shi ne zuwansa na farko, to ya kamata a yaba masa.

Matsalolin Sanata Lado guda biyu ne kacal; na farko manyan aiyukan da yake taƙama da su (titin gadar sama na Gyaɗi-Gyaɗi da kuma raba titin Kano zuwa Katsina) duk ba a kammalasu ba. Shi titin Kano zuwa Katsina ma kusan a ce ba a yi kashi ɗaya bisa hamsin na aikin ba duk da cewa shekara kusan ɗaya da rabi kenan da bayar da kwangilar aikin titin. Wasu daga cikin manyan aiyukan da yake faɗa ma kamar gadar sama a Shataletalen Miltara da kuma a Kurna Babban Layi, har yanzu babu wanda ya ga alamar farasu.

Matsalar Lado ta biyu ita ce tsarin kamfen ko yanayin yaƙin neman zaɓensa. Mutane da yawa suna yi masa kallon wanda ya birkice ya sukurkuce ya ke neman duk hanyar da zai bi kada kujerarsa ta suɓuce. Wannan ta saka shi yin wasu abubuwa da suka saɓa da al’adar yaƙin neman zaɓe, kamar rabon kayan miya da nama, rabon ruwan zafi a asibitoci, sallamar Lado da dai sauransu. Abin da ma aka fi ƙalubalantarsa da shi shi ne, bai tashi yin waɗannan abubuwa ba, sai da zaɓe ya matso.

To amma duk da haka, Lado sai ya fi Kwankwaso amfani nesa ba kusa ba a majalisa domin shi zai kwantar da kai ya yi biyayya ya nemo aiyuka. Zai yi shawara ya tattauna da ‘yan uwansa domin samun mafita ga mazaɓarsa, saɓanin Kwankwaso da ya saba shi a gurinsa ake neman alfarma da aiyukan. Bayan haka kuma, ana kyautata masa zaton zai yi ƙoƙarin matsa lamba don ganin an ƙarasa waɗannan aiyukan da ya nemo domin so yake ya bar tarihi tunda kusan a ce yanzu ya fara siyasa, shi kuwa Kwankwaso ya riga ya gama kafa tarihi, babu wani abu da ya ke buƙata ya yi a nan gaba.

Kwankwaso! Lokacin Zama Cikakken Dattijo Ya Yi;

Dakta Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso yanzu haka shekaraunsa na haihuwa 60 ba kaɗan, kuma kullum burinsa a ce shi ne jagora, kowa  a ƙarƙashinsa ya ke. Dattijantaka ta kan ƙarawa jagoranci armashi; ita kuwa dattijantaka ba ta samuwa idan mutum kullum burinsa  a ce shi zai riƙe muƙami ko zai tsaya takara. A 1999 Marigayi Dakta Muhammad Abubukar Rimi da Malam Musa Gwadabe ba su fi shekaru sittin sittin ba, amma suka zama dattijai a siyasa. A lokacin suna da damar su tsaya kowwanne irin muƙami a Jihar Kano kuma su ci ba hammaya, amma maimakon haka sai suka ɗaurewa irinsu Kwankwaso gindi, a lokacion shi Kwankwason bai fi shekaru 42 zuwa 43 ba. Akwai lokacin da aka yi ta bai wa Rimi shawarar ya tsaya Sanata, amma yace shi ba zai tsaya ba tunda ga yaransa nan na siyasa birjik waɗanda za su iya aikin Sanata, bai kamata ya zama cinye-duk yace sai ya yi da kansa ba.

Kwankwaso ya ɗauko tafiya mai nisa, kuma an kawo gaɓar da zai zama dattijo a siyasar Jihar Kano. Duk wata kujera da ta ke da alaƙa da Kano, in dai ba ya zama dolen-dole ba, to a daina rububinsa da ita. Idan ya na so, ya iya ci gaba da takarar shugaban ƙasa domin ita wannan dama kujera ce ta dattijai kuma ƙwararru. Idan kuma ba haka ba, watarana sai ya wayi gari tsamo-tsamo ya na takarar kujera ɗaya da ya-ku-bayi irina.

©2015: abdulazeezamir@hotmail.com

The Electoral Worth of Calumny Campaigns

24th January, 2015

 

By: Amir Abdulazeez

“We never do evil so effectually as when we are led to do it by a false principle of conscience.”

- Blaise Pascal

N

ormally, one would take a political campaign as some series of planned activities executed to sell a particular candidate to the electorates without violating any law or trespassing any moral boundary. It is also part of a campaign to politely identify the relevant weaknesses of an opponent concerning the contest for the job at hand and expose to the public in order to reduce whatever chances he might have in the elections. However, some activities in the ongoing campaigns for the 2015 presidential elections are in serious contradictions to all of the above.

One fundamental thing that any public office contender and his campaigners must understand is that, elections should be won primarily base on your strengths, achievements and potentials, not base on the weakness or underachievement of your opponents – that should be secondary or even tertiary in your plans. In a reasonable democracy, the moment your campaign is largely dwelt upon attacking your co-contender, rather than selling yourself, then you are half or even totally lost. It is just like a football match, you can win a match by playing to score, not by playing to avoid conceding.

Some few weeks ago, the two leading presidential candidates in the 2015 General Elections, President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP and General Muhammadu Buhari of the APC inaugurated their campaigns. Since then many supporters of the two candidates have been promoting hate, division, mischief and calumny all in the name of garnering support. The campaigns, particularly in the social media at some point were completely turned into an exercise of insults exchange as well as abuses and counter-abuses by supporters. Although, the bulk of social media campaigners are made of young people and are not officially recognized as part of the campaign team of the candidates, but that does not in any way underestimate their relevance or that of their activities. While inaugurating his campaign in Lagos, Jonathan angrily lamented the way he is being abused in the social media, but he didn’t made any attempt to distance himself from the loads of social media abuses meted on others in the name of campaigning for him. In a related development Buhari and his campaign had strongly condemned Ayo Fayose’s recent death wish advertorial in some National Dailies, but evidence suggests that they have practically not done much to checkmate their supporters’ excesses. This is despite the accord signed by the two candidates – an accord that promises issue-based campaigns.

Some few weeks to the presidential elections, the campaign so far has been dominated by academic certificates, good first lady versus bad first lady, youth versus old age, medical fitness and death predictions. Buhari and Jonathan supporters have spent the best of the last two weeks arguing about secondary school certificates and PhD thesis. If such time and energy were put into vigorous and issue-based campaigns, some impact must have been made. The problem of this kind of campaigns is that, you don’t only waste your time; you waste the time of your victim who tries to defend himself from your attacks as well as the public who are anticipating issue-based criticisms. I am not saying that issues that relate to a candidate’s eligibility or verifiability of his submissions should not be of any concern, but if our target is to mischievously use these issues to gain or repel votes for or against any candidate; then, I can say it’s as good as an exercise in futility, especially in this part of the world. In Nigeria, you can never get any meaningful votes, worth the energy spent on such campaigns, if at all you can get any. We all know the procedures of seeking redress, if we are accusing anyone of forgery or if our genuine concerns are about one’s eligibility. Some people who are of the opinion that Jonathan is running for a third term are still in court, they may win or lose, but how much does that affects his chances in the polls?

The question now is, of what significant electoral value are these campaigns of calumny? I thought every exercise in any campaign is to get votes? Last time, when it was reported that MEND has endorsed Buhari, the first thought that came to my mind was, how many votes would such an endorsement fetch? I doubt if MEND can mobilize electorates to vote for anybody, I don’t even think anyone should be happy to have a group of current and ex-militants in his campaign team. MEND may only be relevant if one wants to cause trouble during the elections or he needs some campaign funding from oil bunkering money. With the endorsement of Jonathan by Asari Dokubo as far back as 2013, how much boost has the overall Jonathan support received since then?

The way things presently appear, more than 90% of Nigerians are already long-term, decided voters. Many have decided on whom to vote for as far back as 2012 and there seems to be nothing that could change their decision, not even these silly calumny campaigns. The concept of undecided voters-who are the major reasons campaigns exist in the first place, is not relevant in Nigeria. While in advance democracies, an undecided voter may be someone who is willing to vote but has not settled for a party or candidate; in Nigeria, he is someone who has resolved not to vote at all or who doesn’t even have a voters’ card. Rigging and money influence aside, Nigerians usually vote along religious, ethnic, sectional and political party lines, with few voting for competence. With the South West as an exception, not a very significant change to this scenario is expected in 2015. If someone who has planned to vote for Buhari changes his mind and decides to vote for Jonathan or vice-versa, it is slightly likely that his decision was influenced by any of the character assassination campaigns. Unless, if he was never a serious voter in the first place.

Part of the reasons why some people were against the emergence of both

Buhari and Jonathan as candidates were that Nigeria may never emerge the winner before, during and after the elections, only fresh candidates from both parties would inject something new into the system which is different from the largely inconsequential issues being currently propagated. If Buhari and Jonathan had decided to stay at home and not campaign at all, little will change. If Buhari’s unending presidential contention has not made his current supporters to be tired of him, what else could? The certificate saga, prostate cancer fabrications, attacks on his accent and grammar, old age criticisms and death wishes has apparently not taken anything away from his support. It has only succeeded in consolidating the position of those who were never going to vote for him in the first place. If Jonathan’s abysmal performance in the last six years and the general insecurity in the nation don’t mean anything negative to his supporters, what else would? Tenure controversy, No PhD thesis and no students allegation, poor English speaking First Lady mockery, drinking allegations and other calumny campaigns would not influence his supporters to vote against him, it only succeeds in consolidating the position of his opposers.

Campaigns of calumny exist even in advanced democracies, but they seldom decide an election. Contrary to belief in some quarters that Senator John McCain lost the 2008 presidential elections to Barack Obama due to attacks on his poor health, he actually lost due to the country’s quest for short and long-term changes. Americans hardly vote for any party for more than two terms in the presidency, just as they rarely allow any party to control both chambers of the National Assembly- this is to checkmate power dominance and monopoly. On the long-term, Americans were tired of George Bush’s foreign wars and with McCain willing to continue along that line, they brought in Obama, an African American not only to have a change but to take their democracy to new levels and continue to be a role model for the world.

Nigeria is not a society where scandals and skeletons in peoples’ cupboards really decide politics and leadership. After all, you can do what you like and get a Presidential Pardon later. If scandals matter, Obasanjo would not have any mouth to be talking about Nigerian politics for the rest of his life, many elected and appointed public officers would have since resigned into oblivion. While genuine scandals with facts and proofs have not brought anyone down permanently, how far can campaigns of calumnies go? Politicians indicted for certificate forgery, stealing of public funds and many other scandals from 1999 to date are now in active politics with some of them getting juicy appointments and others contesting for various elective positions. The problem is with our system and we don’t wish to correct it because of our selfish interests and blind support for we want. What is the essence of the political parties’ screening exercise before the primary elections? Why would a political party field an unpopular and unsellable candidate against the people wishes and democratic principles and then resort to campaigns of calumny in order to sell him? What about the media; are they playing their roles or have they taken sides?

In 2003, Buhari lost to Obasanjo because of massive rigging and not because he was accused of being a religious fundamentalist, that was never significant enough to make him lose in the polls; Obasanjo was very unpopular, Buhari was very popular then and his party ANPP was strong enough to see him through if the elections were free and fair. Similarly in 2011, he lost because the PDP was strong, united and intact everywhere and Jonathan had enormous good will across all divides. Moreover, Buhari’s rag-tag CPC was never organized as the party did not even have agents in about 50% of polling units across the country. This has nothing do with the campaigns of calumny against him.    

As we waste our precious time shouting No PhD! No WASC! No Cancer! No Thesis! No Good English! No Good First Lady! No.......... So will the winner of the 2015 Presidential Election emerge without us critically scrutinizing his policy document, without asking him direct and specific questions and demanding clear cut and convincing answers, without analyzing his promises and see how realistic they are, without asking him about the composition of his future cabinet, without compelling him to have interactive sessions with groups of serious people and not noisy rented crowds who doesn’t even understand what he is saying.

We are not even pre-occupied with INEC’s preparedness, what are the security measures in place? How prepared are the police, what are their plans? How free and fair would the polls be? What happens after the elections and how do we move forward irrespective of the outcome?

This goes a long way to show that we haven’t learnt much from 1999-2015 and unfortunately; we are not ready to learn.

©2015: abdulazeezamir@hotmail.com

The Implications of Nigeria's Abstention from Palestinian Vote

7th January, 2015

By: Charles Onunaiju

In what Thisday newspaper called “pivotal foreign policy shift”, Nigeria’s foreign policy actually took a dramatic plunge to new lows, when on December 29, 2014, the country abstained from a vote at the United Nations Security Council that would have set a definite timeframe for the end of Israeli occupation of the Palestinian land. For sure, the United States of America would have exercised her veto to shot down the resolution, even if Nigeria had voted for it but at least, we would have been true to our fundamental principle of long-standing aversion to any form of colonisation, land grab and racial discrimination which have been the primary bases for Nigeria’s stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Credible reports have it that Nigeria’s foreign affairs ministry was fully geared to exercise the country’s traditional vote in favour of the resolution for a time-table to end Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands until the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, placed a direct call to President Goodluck Jonathan. The call evidently threw the country’s foreign policy machinery into disarray, with explicit instructions for Nigeria’s permanent delegation in the UN to vote against the resolution or at best refrain from any voting at all. And with Nigeria’s abstention, the resolution fell apart, after falling short of Nigeria’s one vote to sail through, though with only a potential Washington veto to thwart it, had we voted for the resolution. Even reports said that the Israeli foreign ministry was pleasantly surprised at Nigeria’s last minute abstention, as they expected a yes-vote to the resolution.

The Palestinians were shocked beyond words. Their ambassador to Nigeria, Dr Montazer Abu-Zeid, captured the mood of his people when he told reporters that, “It is a shock for us, why they (Nigeria) abstained. It was a surprise because the ministry of foreign affairs informed me that they would vote for us and I have informed my president and foreign minister as they assured me they would vote for an end to the occupation”.

Further ruminating on Nigeria’s volte-face, the Palestinian envoy said: “It is a sad day for us. Nigeria has recognised the state of Palestine since 1988 when it was even difficult times. They voted for the two state solutions; they voted for us on all issues on Israel and Palestine. Nigeria has been a big brother to us but at this crucial time, to vote to end the occupation, they abstained.”

However, it should be made clear, that Nigeria’s traditional pro-Palestine stance is not derived from unqualified support for the Palestinians or any subsisting antipathy to the Israelis but from a principled stance with explicit commitment of Nigeria’s foreign policy to oppose any form of colonisation and racial discrimination. There is no other way to describe Israeli seizure of Palestinian lands than colonial occupation. Based on this principle, Nigeria recognised the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic which also operates a mission in Abuja. It is thus a pity that with just a phone call, from the Israeli prime minister, President Jonathan destroyed one of the core and enduring principles of Nigeria’s foreign policy.

Had the President and his handlers showed any tact, it would have been enough to tell the Israeli pestering prime minister, that it was an election period, and any such dramatic shift in our traditional stance, could cost some goodwill and votes. Netanyahu himself, who trade on votes of the extremist Jewish settlers on the occupied Palestinian lands, should have shown some understanding. Some observers have speculated that the Presidency may have been swayed by Israel’s increasing co-operation with Nigeria, especially in the area of providing weapons for the country’s war against terror.

However, as plausible as this position may sound, there was a similar parallel, but which did not compel Nigeria to abandon her foreign policy principle. During the civil war, a former external affairs minister was quoted to have said that, “Other NATO countries followed Britain and America’s lead in imposing an arms embargo on Nigeria and in desperation, Nigeria turned to the Russians who agreed to sell arms to the Federal Government”. He added that “this was purely a commercial transaction and those of our critics who thought that this would automatically lead to an ideological shift towards the Russians in our post-war foreign policy need to know that we paid cash for these purchases at a time when our foreign exchange reserves were abysmally low”. (Diplomatic soldiering: The conduct of Nigeria foreign policy, 1975-79 by Joe Garba, page 180)

Even now, Nigeria’s foreign reserves are on a downward spiral as oil revenue continues to plunge. Israel is definitely collecting cash for all purchase as her war economy is equally on a downward spiral. Why therefore, would Nigeria jettison one of its core foreign policy principles? Some have speculated that President Jonathan with his retinue of Pentecostal pastors may have thought that an extension of support for Israel would have amounted to a Christian obligation.

It may interest them that the birthplace of Jesus Christ in Bethlehem, in the West Bank of the Palestinian territory, also takes a daily pounding from the Israeli occupation force. However, no matter how the decision to assault one of the pillars of Nigeria’s foreign policy came about, President Jonathan has confirmed a long standing public view that the regime is clueless. The implication of such a behaviour that even left the country’s foreign policy establishment in the lurch, is that most of the world would not be able to find synergy and consistency between our foreign policy principle and international behaviour. It will be hard to take Nigeria’s foreign ministry seriously as far as President Jonathan is in charge of the country.

In 2011, Nigeria under Jonathan made a similar and even worse foreign policy blunder that had implications in the escalation of the domestic terror attacks. The African Union had taken steps to find a negotiated settlement to the then festering crisis between the Benghazi-based opposition Transitional National Council and the Libyan government of Muammar Gaddaffi. The opposition TNC clearly backed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation with air cover and generous supply of equipment from NATO was desperately moving to secure a military victory. Most of Africa, especially South Africa, seemed to understand the far-reaching implications of a NATO-backed military victory for the insurgents and stuck to the gun of a negotiated settlement. President Jonathan broke away from the emerging African consensus on a negotiated settlement and became the first African country of significance to recognise the NATO backed TNC in Libya.

With NATO generous air campaign, the Gaddaffi regime was violently overthrown and with the country thrown into chaos, the well supplied armoury was thrown open.

The formerly ragtag Boko Haram extremists and other insurgents in the sub-region laid their hands on the sophisticated weapons from the Libyan armoury with a consequence for escalation of the insurgents’ activities both in Nigeria and the West African subregion. Since then, the terrorists in Nigeria have increased in their capabilities and their weapons have become more sophisticated. The destabilisation of Libya directly fed to the growing insurgency in Nigeria and the Jonathan administration is reasonably complicit in the act and its consequences of the thriving terrorist activities both in Nigeria and the sub-region.

Foreign policy is not an exclusive toy of any President as its principles are not defined lightly and therefore cannot be altered or jettisoned at the pleasure of anyone. It represents the core value deriving from a reasonable national consensus and therefore not subject to the whirlwinds of mere passing events both local and international.

The ripples of Nigeria’s behaviour at the UN Security Council, late last year, will definitely ruffle feathers in the diplomatic community where it might appear that the magic wand to thwart Nigeria’s foreign policy is a mere telephone call from any world capital.

(Source: The Punch)

10 Things We Learnt from the APC and PDP Primaries

19th December, 2014

By: Amir Abdulazeez

T

he primary elections of Nigeria’s two strongest political parties, the All Progressives’ Congress (APC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) might have come and gone, but the dusts raised by the exercises across various states of the federation are yet to settle. As things are currently going, it is unlikely that the primary election appeal committees of both parties will adequately or significantly settle these dusts so much that it will amount to a major change of the status quo.

Petitions, accusations, allegations and counter allegations from different aspirants may have to be settled by the courts as INEC’s deadline for accepting nominations of some candidates from political parties has elapsed.

For better or for worse, these nomination processes by the two biggest parties have taught us some lessons, some of which were so funny to the extent that one occasionally finds it difficult to differentiate between Nigerian politics and comedy. From the expected and usual to the bizarre and unexpected, here are some of these things are;

Aspirants Only Unite After Losing Primaries;

This year’s elections have seen a lot of contenders for different positions with some states having from between 10 to 15 gubernatorial aspirants in one party alone. Ideally, one expects all the aspirants to have one major goal, that of using the office they are vying for to better peoples’ lives and the only differences between them should be in methods and approaches to achieving that goal. In the pursuit of their mandates, they differ very much. While some are craving for free and credible primaries, some are clamouring for zoning, some want automatic tickets while others are waiting for anointment. However, once the primaries are over and the ‘winner’ emerges, the defeated aspirants will for the right or wrong reasons gang up and suddenly unite under one agenda, call for fresh primaries. Aspirants with hitherto no connections or even sharing animosities, suddenly become partners searching for justice. A lot of PDP Gubernatorial Primaries have resulted in such scenarios with Yobe, Adamawa, Kano and Imo been typical examples. The APC has a similar case in Gombe.

APC Is Merged but Not Integrated;

From early to late last year, the ANPP, ACN, CPC, APGA Faction, nPDP and others merged to form the APC with some coming after the party’s formal registration. However, the recent primaries in some states showed that they didn’t really merge; the only glued or fastened together. In many states, there was rancour over what they termed ‘marginalization of legacy parties’ or ‘scheming out of non-legacy parties’, etc. in other states, candidates were ‘allocated’ based on legacy or merging parties. A senatorial aspirant in Kano State only remembered that he was a former ACN member after he lost the primaries. One of the reasons he gave why the primaries should be annulled was that ACN was marginalized in the state.

Consensus Is More like Coercion;

The issue of consensus candidate is not new in our politics, but it was practically kicked off this term by the PDP and President Jonathan. PDP undemocratically barred anyone from contesting against the president, despite the fact that nothing suggests that Jonathan will not win the PDP primaries with a landslide against whoever decides to contest. Although a convention was later organized to ratify Jonathan’s candidacy, we also learnt from that convention that all this while, the PDP National Chairman and Secretary have been in acting capacity.

Furthermore, most candidates who were claimed to have stepped down base on consensus arrangement, later turned back and kicked against the consensus arrangement, citing coercion, threat and potential injustice for their withdrawal. In Jigawa State, the former Deputy Governor of the state emerged as APC gubernatorial candidate through consensus, only for one of the other aspirants to make a u-turn and insists on primaries. That aspirant won, but the earlier consensus candidate did not participate in the primaries.

Elections May Not Hold in Emergency States;

No party held meaningful primaries in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. While the PDP shifted its primaries for these states to Abuja, most of the APC’s candidates emerged unopposed. For example APC governorship aspirants in Yobe were frustrated out of the race to pave way for the emergence of Governor Ibrahim Gaidam almost unopposed as flag-bearer. Some ‘non-favoured’ APC aspirants ran between Damaturu and Abuja in search of where to submit their forms, with some of them not being able to do so up to the time of the primaries. Governor Shettima as well as almost all Borno APC candidates emerged automatically. However, the party conducted successful primaries in Adamawa.

The PDP, for security reasons conducted its own primaries for some of these states in Abuja. Nuhu Ribadu emerged Adamawa PDP candidate in what looked like a one-way traffic process with almost all the candidates including Governor Ngilari rejecting the outcome. Earlier before the primaries the Adamawa Governor according to media reports promised all the delegates automatic employment worth N50,000 monthly, but still went ahead to ‘lose’.

If the mighty Ruling Party cannot conduct primaries in a place for security reasons, then, how secure is that place for General Elections?

Nigerians Have No Stake in Determining Flag-bearers, there is No End in Sight to Godfatherism and Nigerian Governors are Simply Unstoppable;

The most popular aspirants usually lose in the primaries, leaving voters to elect between whomever candidates the party primaries produce for them in the general elections.

Early this year, APC embarked on a massive membership drive promising Nigerians that they would be given the opportunity to choose their leaders through direct primaries. However, since after the enormously successful membership registration exercise, the party began to systematically distance itself from that promise, until it eventually settled for what it called ‘modified indirect primaries’. That arrangement has seen only 6,008 delegates select a Presidential Candidate for more than 170 million people.

PDP’s case is even worse in all ramifications as about 3000 delegates were made to vote for just one contender. Also, 21 delegates were alleged to have determined the PDP gubernatorial candidate for the whole of Yobe State. We also learnt, especially from the PDP primaries that delegates may be different from voters and that it is not the voting that matters, but the counting.

Godfathers, most of who are governors have continued their dictatorial trend of dominating politics left, right and center. Governors’ favoured aspirants are winning primaries with ‘ease’ and by the governors forcing themselves as senatorial candidates; they are now well positioned to take over the Red Chamber in 2015. Meanwhile, the abysmal performance of deputy governors in primary elections continues. It is safe to assume that no less than 90% of Deputy Governors covertly or overtly nurtured the ambition of flying their party’s flags, but only two (Kano and Ebonyi) succeeded, others failed woefully.

Simply put, success in Nigerian politics is fast becoming an impossibility without a godfather. Even the mighty Buhari had to rely on Tinubu’s support to be sure of victory.

Jonathan is Focused on His Ambition;

It is clear that Jonathan is strictly focused on his ambition, leaving little or no room for distractions. This is evident, going by the fact that most of his men failed to clinch the various tickets they contested for. With the exception of Darius Ishaku (Taraba) and Nyesom Wike (Rivers), none of his former ministers managed to scale through the PDP gubernatorial primaries and events suggests that Jonathan did little to help.

Despite being part of Jonathan’s kitchen cabinet, some ministers like that of FCT simply refused to participate in the PDP gubernatorial race probably due to lack of encouragement from the President. It looks like Jonathan did not take sides directly and didn’t get involved much in PDP state primaries, probably as a pay back to his sole candidacy or to avoid any move that could backfire. Internal revolt is the least Jonathan would want at the moment.

APC is PDP’s Waste Basket;

A rough estimate suggests that between 60 to 80% of all successful APC candidates at all levels are either former PDP members or those who left the PDP recently.

Many aspirants joined APC from PDP within days or hours and went ahead to clinch gubernatorial tickets. Akwa-Ibom, Kebbi and Benue states are typical examples. It would be interesting to see if APC would complain if these guys keep to tradition and later re-join the PDP after they win.

The other twenty or thirty something remaining political parties are no more than anyone’s waste basket. Only few of them conducted meaningful and visible primaries with most of their notable candidates emerging after crossing over from other parties.

It Is Possible To Contest for Two Posts at a Time;

This phenomenon practically began with Tambuwal who was eyeing both the APC Presidential and the Sokoto State Governorship Tickets. Media reports suggest that he has obtained nomination forms for both positions. However, he later settled for the governorship.

Kwankwaso and Rochas successfully executed what Tambuwal only attempted. They may not have broken any law, but their actions are simply insulting on peoples’ sensibilities. It was very much clear that Kwankwaso was eyeing the Kano Central Senatorial Ticket even as he was vigorously pursuing a clearly predictable presidential contest. Kwankwaso made sure that his in-law, former Personal Assistant and current Commissioner clinched the Kano Central APC Senatorial Ticket and after he lost the APC Presidential Primaries, the ticket was relinquished to him, just as one’s personal property would be returned to him when he comes for it. Rochas practically did the same by apparently asking his commissioner to take custody of the Imo APC Gubernatorial Ticket for him before he collected it back almost on the very day he lost the presidential primaries. One wonders how APC allowed that without any query so far.

Being Running Mate Is More Difficult Than Being Candidate;

Vice president Namadi Sambo’s seat was under threat for much part of their second coming with Jonathan. It was clear that in the past 2 years that some Northern PDP Governors were not eyeing the Presidency but the Vice Presidency which made Sambo’s position looked insecure for some time.

Similarly, the choice of Buhari’s running mate gave the APC’s top hierarchy a tough time with meetings running into marathons. Before succumbing to religious propaganda which probably necessitated the emergence of Professor Osinbajo, they had to seriously contend with more than 7 names with Amaechi, Oshiomole, Tinubu and Fashola among them. The APC VP slot was fiercely contested to the point one thought the party would organize a fresh convention to elect a VP Candidate.

Similar scenarios is playing out in some states where Gubernatorial Candidates are yet to determine their Running Mates weeks after primaries, even as INEC candidates’ submission deadline is fast approaching.

2015 Elections Would Not Be Free and Fair;

Going by the controversial nature by which many candidates emerged; one has every reason to be pessimistic about the General Elections. Many unpopular incumbents had forced themselves through the primaries and are probably hell bent on rigging themselves through the General Elections.

President Jonathan for example who has one of the poorest public ratings in Africa currently and whose eligibility to contest is still controversial, must be very conscious of this, and he wouldn’t have decided to contest if he was willing to allow a free, fair, smooth and credible election to take place. The way he emerged as PDP’s sole candidate only adds possibility to this assumption.

Furthermore, with many primaries of both parties dominated by money sharing, coercion of delegates, rigging, do-or-die attitude, winning-at-all-costs and winner-takes-all phenomena, one only has to wonder the extent to which candidates that emerged from such processes would go in trying to win at the general elections.

With INEC being handicapped by the Electoral Act from fighting candidate imposition, refusing to accept flawed nominations or even properly checkmating rigging, anything can happen in 2015.  

©2014: abdulazeezamir@hotmail.com