Who is Optimistic About 2019?

20^th November, 2016

By: Amir Abdulazeez

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ew days before the U.S Presidential Elections, I became excessively addicted to many websites and social media platforms that provide regular updates regarding the activities of the candidates standing in the election and its likely outcome. There is this particular pro-Democrats page on Facebook whose updates two to three days before the election were largely and confidently about how Hillary Clinton is going to have a smooth ride over Donald Trump. Hours before the election, the tone of the updates from the page started showing some signs of nervousness and apparent decline in confidence. Immediately after it became clear that Donald Trump was unassailably going to win, the updates didn’t stop, rather, they quickly shifted towards rolling out plans and strategies on how to defeat the Republican in 2020.

The narrative above is to a large extent, a reflection of how thousands, if not millions of typical Nigerians are building up their minds towards 2019. While the pro-democrats are quick to start the plans of how to unseat the yet-to-assume-office President Trump without analysing the circumstances that made it possible for a person of Trump’s calibre to emerge president, some Nigerians are quick to go to the polls in 2019 to replace our current leaders without first finding solutions to the circumstances that makes it possible for the kind of inept leaders we have to emerge and keep emerging.

Ordinarily, we shouldn’t be talking of 2019 as we are only in 2016, but since talking about it appears to be what many Nigerians like, it isn’t completely out of place if we dedicate some paragraphs to it. However, we must accept the fact that by allowing 2019 to dominate our political discussions this early, we have subconsciously abandoned our duty of monitoring those currently calling the shots as well as the obligation of holding them accountable for as long as they remain in office. Meanwhile, how have we faired with the instruments our constitution gave us to checkmate our leaders without necessarily waiting for elections? For instance, how many legislators we accuse of wrongdoing have we recalled?

Just like 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015; 2019 is most likely not going to be much different in terms of the kind of leaders that will emerge. If we like, we may keep changing the individuals but as long as we don’t reform the system, the individuals will behave and remain the same. Now just think of this; has the attitude and conduct of an average Nigerian state governor in 1999 or 2003 been significantly different from that of 2011 or 2015? How about the national and state legislators, local government chairmen and councillors? This is not to say that there are no exceptions, but we can’t expect a negative system to produce positive results except in extremely rare cases.

While we look forward to 2019, we must remember that it is still largely the amount of money you have that mainly determines your success in primary elections; people win elections without any manifesto; party officials at virtually all levels are not elected but selected; godfathers are still the movers and shakers of politics; majority of Nigerians are still largely politically ignorant without any effective mechanism for voter education in place for the foreseeable future; election offenders and fraudsters are still not punished; local government elections are still a sham; there is no level playing ground for non-incumbents against incumbents; our courts are largely seen not to be doing justice to electoral disputes; our electoral laws are still at the mercy of senators who are more partisan than patriotic; a theoretically independent electoral commission and so many other unaddressed issues.   

The desperation through the employment of money, violence and fraud with which participants approached the recent gubernatorial elections in Kogi, Bayelsa and Edo states as well as the numerous re-run elections in many states across the country is an unfortunate eye-opener of what to expect in 2019 elections. Leaders who keep emerging through such a process will neither care to reform the process, nor will they feel seriously obligated to deliver on their responsibilities.

Despite all these, we must acknowledge the fact that our political system have recorded some progress especially between 2007 to 2015, but it is still largely not what it supposed to be for obvious reasons. The defeat of PDP for instance represents a massive triumph for democracy not because those who collectively replaced them were very much significantly better, but because it signifies the dismantling of a monstrous cabal that was hell-bent on holding Nigeria ransom for only-God-knows when. The current crisis and lack of cohesion in the APC is a big plus and blessing in disguise for ordinary Nigerians because it may mean that the party will find it difficult to have the strength and energy to develop into a PDP-like cabal. Already some cracks in the APC are appearing to be beyond redemption. While, we advocate for strong and durable political parties in Nigeria, we abhor a situation where they become too strong to be answerable to Nigerians.

Apart from the defeat of PDP, we must acknowledge as another blessing the fact that elections between 2011 to 2015 are largely freer and fairer than those between 2003 and 2007. While we are happy about this development, we must be wary of the level of its collective sustainability as well as the increasingly monetized and abused process that usually paves way to such General Elections. We must accept that an election, even if free, cannot be fair if it was preceded by a rigged process.

There is this talk that secret preparations have reached advanced stage towards coming up with a third alternative party to APC and PDP by early to mid-2017. It is rumoured that the new party will be driven by aggrieved bigwigs from PDP and APC. This is very laughable to say the least. So, Nigerians should wait for politically aggrieved politicians with myopic partisan interests to lead the way in 2019? Anyway, they can always count on the gullibility of Nigerians, which is so much that a mere change of alphabets in a political party can make them pardon individuals who were and still are the major architects of their predicaments.

Those eagerly waiting for 2019 to replace President Buhari as the ultimate solution to our current problems, have the right to do so, but must broadly understand that our problem is far beyond that. Personally, after 18 months at the helm, I may have given up on Buhari becoming Nigeria’s version of Nelson Mandela of South Africa, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania or Kwame Nkurumah of Ghana who unlike Buhari were able to unite their countrymen, but I still back him do very well before the end of his tenure, especially if he makes the necessary adjustments which are not beyond his ability. While I pray and hope, he does well, I also wish he initiate bold reforms that will sanitize party democracy in Nigeria and to organize in 2019, a more credible election than the one that brought him to power; and he shouldn’t be a candidate in it. Not seeking re-election in 2019 will consolidate the good legacy we hope he will build by the end of his tenure and will help him to peacefully retire amidst old age.   

Observably, one problem we are dangerously facing is how many Nigerians have concentrated their attention on the President thereby neglecting other numerous national, state, local and even traditional stakeholders in the Nigerian project. One of the reasons we are experiencing the current problems was our excessive concentration on Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, thinking that replacing him is the only and ultimate solution. Yes, we replaced him which was fine, but we went ahead to vote for so many incompetent legislators and state governors, which we are paying the price today.

In view of all these, there is honestly no basis for optimism towards 2019 without first a thorough reform of our political system electorally, judicially, morally and socially. The system we have in place keeps producing leaders that are more interested in politics and wealth than they are in governance and legacy. Few weeks to 2017, we may appear to be late, but we can still do something.

Where do we start? I don’t know? But here is an idea; how about we quickly start thinking of a political party backed by ordinary Nigerians and not one populated by aggrieved PDP and APC politicians; one that nobody will need millions of naira before clinching any of its tickets?

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez