Some Clarifications Ahead of 2023

 10th June, 2022

By: Amir Abdulazeez

T

he primary elections of the two leading political parties, APC and PDP had come and gone. The dusts raised by the exercises across various states of the federation are yet to settle. As things are currently going, it is unlikely that the primary election appeal committees of both parties will adequately or significantly settle these dusts to the extent of amounting to a major change of the status quo. Afterall everything was clear, the contests were majorly a measure of financial power.

As usual, our attempts to digest the intrigues and expectations of the upcoming grand 2023 event has once again resulted to endless debates that often lead to more confusions than clarifications. Certain political dynamics cannot be adequately explained by simple analysis or even complex ones. This is truer for cases like Nigeria where deep insight is considered old fashioned, authentic information is always scarce and genuine narratives are always twisted.

Ahead of the just concluded APC Primaries, many accused Yemi Osinbajo of being a traitor and betrayer by contesting against his benefactor Tinubu. However, few people will understand that only one out of a million people will go so close to the presidency like Osinbajo did without succumbing to the temptation of taking a shot at it. The cabal-theory notwithstanding, he is perhaps the Nigerian Vice President who was closest to the full privileges of the presidency in recent history. At a time, the Professor himself appeared like the next president in waiting. In sincere terms, Osinbajo may feel that running for the Presidency is more of an attempt to fulfil a destiny than betraying a godfather whose help he may not need any longer.

May be, many have forgotten, the Vice President had at a time been an Acting President with virtually full Presidential powers. He is aware of people's confidence in his competence and he quite knows that there are many factors against Tinubu's candidacy. With the Southwest as the default region where APC will likely have its next candidate, it is only natural he (the second default candidate) tries his luck in case Tinubu (the default candidate) does not get the nod. If he doesn't contest, how can he cash in on a Tinubu collapse? If he hadn’t contested, his promoters would never have forgiven him. Now that he had contested, he knows the extents and limits of his political strengths which might have been hitherto exaggerated.

Some analysts have accused Tinubu of trying to become President at all cost despite being sick and unstable. What we have forgotten is that, he had since 1998 invested almost 25 years of his life (and health) trying to reach this point and we all know he will need an ultimate reward at the end of it all. Now that the reward is within reach, only one out of a million people will back off over health challenges that are yet to prevent him from managing a public appearance. When he was making all those sacrifices and concessions, many of us did not bother to understand the larger picture of where he was heading to. If not for democracy, one will suggest that, the APC ticket should’ve been handed over to him unopposed

Therefore, Tinubu has fought for long, he has been in the opposition all his life, he has helped build a new political order in Nigeria. Without him, power will still likely be with the PDP now and may be forever. It's not his making that his health appears to be failing him at this moment of near fulfilment, but as a human he will continue believing his condition is good enough to manage him to the finish line. The Late President Ƴaradua’s situation in 2010 should teach us some lessons, that of Buhari in 2017 too. Tinubu is certainly not the best APC had on offer capacity-wise, but he is the most formidable, his political structure is out of this world. Win or lose, at least they have repaid a significant part of the debt they owe him.

In the build up to the primaries, we all thought everyone was an enemy of the South east since the rest of Nigeria had refused to exclusively zone the presidency to the region. In his speech at the APC convention, Ogbonnaya Onu emotionally shouted for justice against the Igbo marginalization. If not for the APC and PDP Southeast delegates who proved the Igbos unpreparedness by refusing to vote for any of their kinsmen, everyone will simply be emotionally blackmailed. Besides, we have all seen how disorganized the Southeast aspirants were across both parties.

In 2003 to 2010, the South east was considered a strong political bloc, but they wasted opportunity after opportunity to consolidate, instead they focused on ethnic and religious politics. Conceding the Presidency to the Southwest in 1999 was largely a Military arrangement executed against democratic principles. The southeast demanding same in a maturing democracy is quite difficult. In this era, no one will dash you the Presidency, you have to earn it.

Another aspirant is NNPP’s Rabi’u Kwankwaso whose critics accuse of being a local champion. However, his supporters insist on rating him higher than Atiku and Tinubu base on tangible track record. However, the debate is not as simple as it seems. The same scale cannot be used to measure Tinubu, Kwankwaso and especially Atiku as their political career paths are distinctively different. The truth is Kwankwaso is a national figure who has invested too much energy on local politics and that was why he was able to achieve what he has achieved. This has come with a price though because he has dominated and taken away all the local relevance that he could’ve easily allowed his subordinates to coordinate, a feat that would’ve given him a Tinubu-like aura. At the end, he ends up fighting for crumbs with local people that makes him unavoidably more local than national.

What of Peter Obi? He appears to have more packaging than substance but, he is yet another litmus test for the Southeast. They feel denied, marginalized and short-changed. Their response should be a massive vote for him even if he may not win, they will succeed in sending a strong message ahead of 2027. However, there is a wiser option. They can use Petr Obi as bargaining tool with someone like Kwankwaso for example; form an alliance, challenge the red-cap man to deliver the Northwest zone while they offer southeast and see whether something will come out of it.

The bottom line is that we don't need to be too much upset or over obsessed with anybody's ambition, any region's miscalculations or any party's misdirection. There are so many choices in the political landscape which our myopia is hindering us from utilizing. For example, if you truly want an Igbo president, Labour party has fielded Peter Obi, if you want somebody whose hands is not shaking, NNPP has fielded Kwankwaso, etc. Quietly do the needful and enjoin others to do same. Give it try, the strong parties and candidates are only frontliners because you and me made them so.

Nigerian public discourse often makes complex political analysis look simple and simple political analysis look complex. And finally, we end up achieving no political analysis at all.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez