Some Clarifications Ahead of 2023

 10th June, 2022

By: Amir Abdulazeez

T

he primary elections of the two leading political parties, APC and PDP had come and gone. The dusts raised by the exercises across various states of the federation are yet to settle. As things are currently going, it is unlikely that the primary election appeal committees of both parties will adequately or significantly settle these dusts to the extent of amounting to a major change of the status quo. Afterall everything was clear, the contests were majorly a measure of financial power.

As usual, our attempts to digest the intrigues and expectations of the upcoming grand 2023 event has once again resulted to endless debates that often lead to more confusions than clarifications. Certain political dynamics cannot be adequately explained by simple analysis or even complex ones. This is truer for cases like Nigeria where deep insight is considered old fashioned, authentic information is always scarce and genuine narratives are always twisted.

Ahead of the just concluded APC Primaries, many accused Yemi Osinbajo of being a traitor and betrayer by contesting against his benefactor Tinubu. However, few people will understand that only one out of a million people will go so close to the presidency like Osinbajo did without succumbing to the temptation of taking a shot at it. The cabal-theory notwithstanding, he is perhaps the Nigerian Vice President who was closest to the full privileges of the presidency in recent history. At a time, the Professor himself appeared like the next president in waiting. In sincere terms, Osinbajo may feel that running for the Presidency is more of an attempt to fulfil a destiny than betraying a godfather whose help he may not need any longer.

May be, many have forgotten, the Vice President had at a time been an Acting President with virtually full Presidential powers. He is aware of people's confidence in his competence and he quite knows that there are many factors against Tinubu's candidacy. With the Southwest as the default region where APC will likely have its next candidate, it is only natural he (the second default candidate) tries his luck in case Tinubu (the default candidate) does not get the nod. If he doesn't contest, how can he cash in on a Tinubu collapse? If he hadn’t contested, his promoters would never have forgiven him. Now that he had contested, he knows the extents and limits of his political strengths which might have been hitherto exaggerated.

Some analysts have accused Tinubu of trying to become President at all cost despite being sick and unstable. What we have forgotten is that, he had since 1998 invested almost 25 years of his life (and health) trying to reach this point and we all know he will need an ultimate reward at the end of it all. Now that the reward is within reach, only one out of a million people will back off over health challenges that are yet to prevent him from managing a public appearance. When he was making all those sacrifices and concessions, many of us did not bother to understand the larger picture of where he was heading to. If not for democracy, one will suggest that, the APC ticket should’ve been handed over to him unopposed

Therefore, Tinubu has fought for long, he has been in the opposition all his life, he has helped build a new political order in Nigeria. Without him, power will still likely be with the PDP now and may be forever. It's not his making that his health appears to be failing him at this moment of near fulfilment, but as a human he will continue believing his condition is good enough to manage him to the finish line. The Late President Ƴaradua’s situation in 2010 should teach us some lessons, that of Buhari in 2017 too. Tinubu is certainly not the best APC had on offer capacity-wise, but he is the most formidable, his political structure is out of this world. Win or lose, at least they have repaid a significant part of the debt they owe him.

In the build up to the primaries, we all thought everyone was an enemy of the South east since the rest of Nigeria had refused to exclusively zone the presidency to the region. In his speech at the APC convention, Ogbonnaya Onu emotionally shouted for justice against the Igbo marginalization. If not for the APC and PDP Southeast delegates who proved the Igbos unpreparedness by refusing to vote for any of their kinsmen, everyone will simply be emotionally blackmailed. Besides, we have all seen how disorganized the Southeast aspirants were across both parties.

In 2003 to 2010, the South east was considered a strong political bloc, but they wasted opportunity after opportunity to consolidate, instead they focused on ethnic and religious politics. Conceding the Presidency to the Southwest in 1999 was largely a Military arrangement executed against democratic principles. The southeast demanding same in a maturing democracy is quite difficult. In this era, no one will dash you the Presidency, you have to earn it.

Another aspirant is NNPP’s Rabi’u Kwankwaso whose critics accuse of being a local champion. However, his supporters insist on rating him higher than Atiku and Tinubu base on tangible track record. However, the debate is not as simple as it seems. The same scale cannot be used to measure Tinubu, Kwankwaso and especially Atiku as their political career paths are distinctively different. The truth is Kwankwaso is a national figure who has invested too much energy on local politics and that was why he was able to achieve what he has achieved. This has come with a price though because he has dominated and taken away all the local relevance that he could’ve easily allowed his subordinates to coordinate, a feat that would’ve given him a Tinubu-like aura. At the end, he ends up fighting for crumbs with local people that makes him unavoidably more local than national.

What of Peter Obi? He appears to have more packaging than substance but, he is yet another litmus test for the Southeast. They feel denied, marginalized and short-changed. Their response should be a massive vote for him even if he may not win, they will succeed in sending a strong message ahead of 2027. However, there is a wiser option. They can use Petr Obi as bargaining tool with someone like Kwankwaso for example; form an alliance, challenge the red-cap man to deliver the Northwest zone while they offer southeast and see whether something will come out of it.

The bottom line is that we don't need to be too much upset or over obsessed with anybody's ambition, any region's miscalculations or any party's misdirection. There are so many choices in the political landscape which our myopia is hindering us from utilizing. For example, if you truly want an Igbo president, Labour party has fielded Peter Obi, if you want somebody whose hands is not shaking, NNPP has fielded Kwankwaso, etc. Quietly do the needful and enjoin others to do same. Give it try, the strong parties and candidates are only frontliners because you and me made them so.

Nigerian public discourse often makes complex political analysis look simple and simple political analysis look complex. And finally, we end up achieving no political analysis at all.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Osinbajo: A Memo to APC Delegates by Ahmad Abdullahi

 27^th May, 2022

By: Ahmad Abdullahi

I

n a few days time, political parties in the country would have concluded all the rituals of producing candidates that will represent them in the 2023 general presidential elections. This election season has seen an unprecedented rise in the number of aspirants who want to take the country’s number one top job. While many are contenders, there are many who are pretenders, and a host of others are just bystanders.

It has been reported that over twenty-five people have purchased the presidential nomination forms of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The major ones among them include the APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Senate President Ahmad Lawan, erstwhile transportation minister Rotimi Amaechi, former President Good luck Jonatrhan, a host of state governors and of course the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo.

The calibre of the contestants suggest that it will be very difficult if not impossible to achieve consensus in favour of any candidate. It is therefore highly likely that Nigerians are going to witness one of the most hotly contested primary elections in this 4^th Republic. As the country is battling with so many challenges, citizens will be hoping that the right and best candidate emerge from APC as it stands the best position to clinch power at the national level. As all eyes will be on the delegates in few days, the question is therefore, who represents the best option at the moment.

To be honest, many candidates that have expressed interest so far have good political credentials and prerequisite experience to lead the country. We have had presidents in the past who were probably not as good as some of theses candidates. However, a among the best, we have the very best. This is why, the vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo is head and shoulders above his co-contestants.

While going into the contest, Nigerians and particularly the APC delegates should note that the Vice President is the first and only Professor to become President or Vice President in Nigeria and has so far adequately demonstrated why the most educated among us need to be allowed to serve at the highest level. He is the one who has supervised and presided over the initiation and implementation of the largest Social Investment Programme in the history of Contemporary Africa. Irrespective of the challenges, this programme has been a huge success and signpost achievement for the Buhari administration.

Yes, under normal circumstances nobody will attempt to aspire for president of a country if he is not soundly educated and experienced. Among the lots, Yemi Osinbajo is the undoubtedly the most adequately educated and professionally inclined Presidential hopeful among the very top living Nigerians today. This should give him an edge over other aspirants.

The law professor has spent seven solid years serving Nigerians and the President with uncommon patience, dedication and humility. He has never disappointed on any task assigned to him. Nigeria's major problem being basically that of justice, law and order, he is the foremost elite with the best understanding of the needed legal and judicial reforms to turnaround the fortunes and future of the country.

Osinbajo is the man who understands all the successes of this administration and is in a better position to build on them, and also the man who understands all its shortcomings and is in a better position to make up for them. As one of the brains behind the APC Manifesto at the party's inception and its operationalization in government as VP, Osinbajo is in the best position to consolidate its implementation as President.

Unlike many Presidential hopefuls who are planning to run from regional, religious, political and selfish motivations, the VP plans to become a true Nigerian candidate and a president for all Nigerians. As Acting President, he made one of the most diplomatic and yet authoritative efforts to save Nigeria from untimely disintegration. He brought together all political, traditional and professional stakeholders in Aso Rock to further boost their confidence in the Nigerian Project.

In his tour of the 36 states to campaign for delegates votes and stakeholders support, he has always been close to his tablet. He listens  passionately, digests carefully and records almost everything himself in the device. This shows his level of commitment which is quite exceptional.

It would’ve been a very big political injustice if the Vice President had been bullied out of the Presidential race for some parochial unsubstantial reasons. It would’ve been a case of the best contender being intimidated out because he couldn’t be beaten on competent grounds. He is prepared for the job and will make a good president. The initiative now lies with the APC Delegates who will be the deciders. Once they stand on the part of patriotism and do their part, Nigerians will complete the job early next year.

 

The writer is the Team Lead of the Osinbajo-Face of Hope Project.
www.ofaceofhope.com            info@ofaceofhope.com

 

 

Osinbajo: The Face of National Unity by Ahmad Abdullahi

 

17^th April, 2022

By: Ahmad Abdullahi

A

bout eight years ago, the All Progressives’ Congress (APC) appeared to be in a huge dilemma over the selection of a Presidential Running Mate who will fly the flag of the party alongside its candidate General Muhammadu Buhari who just won the party’s primary election. APC’s dilemma was justifiable as they were trying to bring on someone credible that will balance the ticket and make it acceptable enough to stand a strong chance against the mighty PDP.

After so many intrigues within some intense and eventful 48 hours, Professor Yemi Osinbajo got the Vice-presidential ticket to the surprise of many Nigerians. Many expressed fears on whether he carries the political capital strong enough to help the ticket deliver. Little did many knew of the Professors’ charming simplicity and intelligent technicality alongside his mass appeal that saw the ticket going all the way. The rest is now history.

Like in 2015, today, we are again witnessing a period when Presidential candidates are being profiled based on their ethnic affiliations instead of their pedigrees. We are having candidates getting attacked desperately on sentiments and arguments that bring nothing to the table except confusion and division. Being a front-runner for Nigeria’s number one job, the Vice President is one of the most prominent victims of these ethno-religiously motivated attacks

As expected, the build-up to Osinbajo’s presidential declaration has been greeted by so many criticisms, many of whom are targeted towards tarnishing his image and rubbishing his candidacy through lies, character assassination and carefully tailored misinformation. Osinbajo’s attackers are hell-bent on bringing down his candidacy even before it gets started. This goes to tell how significant he is in the political equation of 2023 despite many trying hard to dismiss his impacts over the last seven years.

The Vice President has been accused of being a religious and ethnic bigot. Some have gone as far back as his pre-political life to try to convince people of what many facts has proven him not to be. If we are to be fair to Osinbajo, the man is solely building his presidential campaign on the strength of his adventures of the last seven years in which opportunity has entrusted him with a national assignment that requires him to be fair to all Nigerians. As such you cannot use any other criteria to judge him.

In his first five years in office, he has supervised and presided over the initiation and implementation of the largest Social Investment Programme in the history of Contemporary Africa. A program that has been transparent, just and detribalized. No body can prove that he has used his position to skew the benefits of the social investment programme towards favouring any religion or region. It is one of the rarest programmes that tricked down to the door steps of the poor and downtrodden across all states of the federation.

In mid-2017, Nigeria almost plunged into a national ethno-religious crisis when the Biafran agitators were at the peak of their renewed call for separation. The Federal Government under the wisdom and initiative of the then Acting President Professor Yemi Osinbajo conducted series of consultative meetings with various groups of leaders and people of societal influence across the country to make sure that the situation is tamed and controlled. Osinbajo tirelessly interacted separately with leaders of thought from the North and the South East, traditional and religious leaders from the same regions as well as all 36 state governors. This was no doubt a big positive step which even the opposition Peoples Democratic Party commended.

In their first tenure, Osinbajo’s same Christian constituency which some believe he is favouring accused him of working with President Buhari to Islamize Nigeria. The outcries became so worrisome that Osinbajo made a public clarification. He said that, one day, he woke up around 6:00am in the morning and saw a text message on his phone sent by a renowned Christian leader who said to him that one day he will account for his actions of allowing Muslims to dominate and take over the government of Nigeria. The Vice President has passed through all this only now to be labelled a Christian bigot.

He further said that, he wondered what informed that sort of message while statistics show that there are two more Christians than Muslims in Buhari’s cabinet as at then. He cited an example of a time when a Northern Senator visited President Buhari in his presence and complained bitterly on marginalization of his people. He however left with the embarrassing information that North West, his zone was leading in the number of heads of government parastatals with 47, followed by South West, South South, South East, North East and then North Central. Why didn’t this senator do his homework before complaining? Misinformation.

I remember in one of our interactions with him in the last two years, he said if Nigeria disintegrates into smaller countries that can be run over at will by powerful ones, every region will be disadvantaged in different proportions. He therefore said our strengths lies in our diversities, number and size. He gave the example of Lagos State’s economy being six times bigger than that of Rwanda despite all the so-called giant strides recorded by Paul Kagame over the years. He emphasized that the country needs not disintegrate into smaller parts for people to have the opportunity of holding public office and if it is his face or that of President Buhari you dislike that you want secession, then know that, their days in office are numbered but Nigeria can live forever.

As Acting President, he made one of the most diplomatic and yet authoritative efforts to save Nigeria from untimely disintegration in 2017. He brought together all political, traditional and professional stakeholders in Aso Rock to further boost their confidence in the Nigerian Project. Therefore, no one can question his resolve for national unity and integration.

I think the Vice President can be accused of anything but not religious, regional or ethnic bigotry. If anything, he is perhaps the most qualified Nigerian among those seeking for the Presidency. He is the first and only Professor to become President or Vice President in Nigeria and has so far adequately demonstrated why the most educated among us need to be allowed to serve at the highest level. He is the most adequately educated and professionally inclined Presidential hopeful among the very top living Nigerians today.

The Vice President has delivered within the limit of authority, opportunity and responsibility at his disposal. He has spent seven solid years serving Nigerians and the President with uncommon patience, dedication and humility. He has never disappointed on any task assigned to him. Unlike many Presidential hopefuls who are planning to run from regional, religious, political and selfish motivations, the VP plans to become a true Nigerian candidate and a president for all Nigerians.

That he has been to almost every Local Government in Nigeria is not and cannot be an exaggeration. His long-life push for justice reform in Nigeria have taken him to so many nooks and crannies in the country, The trader and market Moni social investment programmes have seen him monitor and visit rural and remote areas that even ward councillors may not fancy going. The same people who were accuse him of show-off and pretence when he was making such visits are now the ones denying he ever embarked on such visits.

That he has declared to continue from where the President Buhari has stopped is a diplomatic way of saying that he is the man who understands all the successes of this administration and is in a better position to build on them, and also the man who understands all its shortcomings and is in a better position to make up for them. However, some are hell-bent on twisting the narrative.

Those accusing him of political betrayal are tactically telling Nigerians that the Presidency is the birth right of some mighty individuals and it is therefore a crime for ordinary people like Osinbajo to make an attempt on it. What some people are having it very difficult to swallow is that why will an ordinary teacher and lawyer who is not even a former governor or ex-minister and having become Vice president just become President? Who is he? But they forget, power belongs to God.

The 2023 presidential election would have been won and lost by this time next year. It may be Osinbajo or anyone else. However, it is clear even to his worst enemies that the Vice President has all the required credentials to make a good President. Deploying arsenals of calumny campaigns to stop him will not work, only divine destiny can do that.

The writer is the Team Lead of the Osinbajo-Face of Hope Project.
www.ofaceofhope.com            info@ofaceofhope.com

A Personal Tribute to Bashir Tofa

 6^th January, 2022

By: Amir Abdulazeez

W

e have begun this new year on a very sad note following the death of one of Nigeria’s finest individuals, Alhaji Bashir Othman Tofa. Aged 74, he died in Kano at a hospital after a brief illness. The demise of Tofa in the first week of 2022 means we have to carry on with this turbulent journey of returning Nigeria back to sanity, this time without one of its strongest pillars. But most importantly, it is another reminder to all that our days on earth are numbered and there will be a day to account for all our actions.

Late Bashir Othman Tofa, the former Presidential Candidate of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC) will easily enter the list of the top 100 greatest Nigerians of all time irrespective of the criteria employed to make up the list. The only people that will argue against this are those who do not really have knowledge of the type of life he lived and the diverse nature of lives he touched and then of course the young people who don’t know much about him.

In Kano, Tofa sits top in the hierarchy of past and present most influential people in the history of the state. Kano has had many elders, politicians and great men, but none was as unique as Tofa. When Late Yusuf Maitama Sule died in July 2017, I had one major fear of who will replace him and the calm wisdom he represents, not until I remembered Bashir Tofa. Today both are gone; May Allah have Mercy on them. Before he died, Tofa was the Chairman of the Kano Elders Forum.

Unlike many Nigerian statesmen, Bashir Tofa’s political journey was modest. His profile is not filled with government positions and appointed portfolios. In fact, I can’t think of any other politician who managed to reach the peak of the ladder without riding on the back of so many government positions. During the Nigerian Second Republic, Tofa was at various times the secretary of the Kano branch of NPN before he later became the party’s national Financial Secretary and was a national member of the Green Revolution National Committee.

During the Third Republic, he was part of the Liberal Movement which metamorphosed to Liberal Convention when it was not registered as a political party. He joined NRC in 1990. In 1993, Tofa was elected the presidential candidate representing Kano and later defeated Pere Ajunwa, Joe Nwodo and Dalhatu Tafida to clinch the NRC ticket. His running mate in the election was Sylvester Ugoh, an Igbo and a former governor of the now defunct Central Bank of Biafra and an ally during the NPN days.

Indeed, his character, humility, and love for one Nigeria stood him out. This is reflected in his utterances. He preached peace, love, justice and tranquility. In 2011 when President Goodluck Jonathan was declared winner of the Presidential elections, Kano was one of the places where hell broke loose. Hooligans and hoodlums were busy destroying everything that looks elitist irrespective of political affiliation. Some of these hoodlums attacked and burnt a section of his house, reportedly destroying some of his properties in the process. He ordered that np body should maltreat the attackers.

Bashir Tofa was only concerned with the future of those youths and how they could be reformed as he blamed the decay in societal values for their actions. He said, if the society had done its job properly, these attackers would probably be in school or work places, therefore, he pardoned them. He was a known inspiration to the youth and always advised everyone on the need to maintain peace, law and order. Being a man that always strived for orderliness, he set up the Bureau for Islamic Propagation in the mid-80s that helped to unite Muslim scholars in Northern Nigeria, narrowing the differences that characterized their relationships.

I have for long had fears over the longevity of Bashir Tofa, although God has preserved him for much longer than my fears. I can’t really say why, but since after the deaths of two Principal June 12 actors, MKO Abiola and Shehu Musa ‘Yaradua over 25 years ago, my worry was that Tofa will also go home someday, a reality I had never wanted to come to terms with. He survived much longer, but I wished some of his other June 12 compatriots had also lived long enough to witness the type of Nigeria we live in today. When we met in early 2021 at the funeral of his youngest brother, Alhaji Abba Tofa, I had a reoccurrence of those fears.

Many people have misunderstood Tofa for long and some had only gotten the chance to truly know him from 15 years ago to date when he had focused less and less on politics and business to rather shift his attention to private life, authorship and philanthropy. Though he has been combining all throughout his life, but as he became an elder, he focused more on guiding the society to the right path.

It is unfortunate that many people never had the opportunity to have a taste of his wisdom and calmness. But it is more unfortunate that some who had the opportunity of doing that did not utilize the opportunity. In the wake of the balkanization of the Kano Emirate, Tofa made a last-minute attempt to save our heritage even when the Governor will not listen to elders. It was reported that the Kano State House of Assembly suspended plenary session to see him when he visited. It was said that they received him quite well and treated him with utmost respect while he appeals to them to ditch their plans. As destiny will have it, they went ahead to pass the law that disintegrated the long-standing emirate shortly after he left. After that, he said he has satisfied his conscience by doing his part.

Tofa is the type of elite you can only find in the most developed countries of the world. An elite in the class of Abraham Lincoln and the likes. He was the most organized Nigerian elite I have ever come across. A renown politician, A social and family leader, a successful entrepreneur, a vastly knowledgeable gentlemen, an erudite scholar, a formidable stateman and an intellectual author. Who will fill this vacuum? Perhaps there will never be another Bashir Tofa again.

Standing on his grave where he was buried in between his late father and mother, I held back tears severally while thinking about the complexity of life and simplicity of death. Even such a great soul had to eventually succumb to death; we must be careful with this life. Every other person around the cemetery not only wore a sad look, but also an image of an uncertain future. This great man will be mourned forever.

Bashir Tofa has had a successful life which impacted on society at every stage. He is indeed a hero and role model for all generations. He understood society quite well, he acknowledges its rot and the task required to fix it. I still remember Bashir Tofa’s simple campaign slogan when he ran for president; Tofa is the Answer. There was so much wisdom in the slogan; whatever are the problems, past and present, Tofa is the answer.

In Primary school, we had so many MKO Abiola and SDP sympathizers in my primary six class. However, some weeks before the June 12 Presidential elections, my classmates came to realize that Bashir Tofa was my Grand Uncle. Since that day, whenever I come in the morning, the routine chanting praising Tofa will fill the air. My class teacher enquired about the new development, when I explained to him, we laughed about it. He was supporting Abiola though, but whenever he sees me, he’ll jokingly say Tofa is the Answer.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

Certificate of Survival

8^th July, 2021

By: Amir Abdulazeez

S

ome weeks ago, I was caught up in a debate involving some people who were trying to justify the Federal Government of Nigeria’s ban of Twitter and those who were opposed to it. To be fair to all, every side had some very good points strong enough to sway a neutral person to their side. However, one thing remains fundamental and clear even to the debaters; the twitter ban is not going to solve any of our short and long-term problems, including the very ones for which the Federal Government used to justify the ban.

For any critical observer, it will not be difficult to note that the Buhari Administration had not taken lightly any action that will or is capable of undermining official state authority or that of the President since its coming in 2015. This is perhaps why over 1000 Shiites were alleged to have been killed in the early days of the administration for blocking the way of the Chief of Army Staff among other things. It may be also the reason why IPOB and End SARS protesters were not treated with the kid gloves with which bandits and mass murderers of ordinary citizens are apparently treated with. Twitter had not offended ordinary Nigerians as much as it had offended the Presidency and hence the ban. Regardless, at least the ban is a strong message that not everything can be tolerated by Nigeria, especially the sort of highhanded arbitrariness on the part of the social media tech giant.  

Some few hours before the ban came into effect, I was surfing the platform to catchup with the day’s national and international news when I came across an interesting statement credited to ex-Senator Dino Melaye.  Melaye was reported to have said that any Nigerian that survived this APC’s administration to its end alive deserves a certificate of survival. I don’t know whether he actually said that or not, but the statement is typical of him. Besides, the truth is that ordinary Nigerians are currently receiving the suffering of their lives.

According to the Consumer Price Index report, recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria's inflation rate for May, 2021 stands at 17.93%, a slight drop from April, 2021 which was 18.12%. Food which is the most critical item recorded an inflation rate of 22.28% in May. This is the highest since April of 2017. Nigeria ranks 13^th in the global inflation table and 7^th in Africa, making it among the worst worldwide. At less than $80 per month, Nigeria’s minimum wage is one of the poorest in the world. A substantial percentage of the Nigerian population has been reduced to begging. The crime rate in almost every state of the federation is on the increase; income is static, expenditure is growing, no jobs and opportunities.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change over time in prices of 740 goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living. The index weights are based on expenditures of both urban and rural households in the 36 states. How good a measure it is to quantify our real suffering from this hyperinflation is another question of its own.

Our real problem is that these figures are only giving us an idea but not the true picture of the cost of living in the country. We all know that these figures are mainly hypothetical; we have essential goods and services that have recorded 100% increase in prices within weeks. Another concern is that, other countries facing inflation are somehow doing well relatively. For example, the twelve countries worse than Nigeria in the global inflation ranking are better off in terms of peace and security (with the exception of may be Syria) and prosperity (with the exception of may be Sudan and South Sudan).

The country is faced with multiple, unprecedented and overwhelming security challenges from all fronts. With no clear end in sight, many people in some parts of the country live everyday in uncertainty while helplessly waiting for the worst. In places like parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kaduna and Niger States, people live to tell the daily stories of tragedy while hopelessly waiting to be consumed like their brethren. Survival has become a privilege these days.

The government is overwhelmed and had resorted to foreign debts to keep the collapsing economy working. Nigeria’s External Debt has reached $32.9 billion US Dollars as at March 2021. Roughly, each and every Nigerian is indebted to the tune of 65,000 to 70,000 Naira at official exchange rate of dollar to Naira. We have not stopped borrowing; a substantial amount of our current and future budgets still depends on external borrowing. We are not talking of internal debt.

Ordinary Nigerians are finding life unbearable. Are these sufferings temporary? What are we doing to stop this? Why is every previous year better?  How does the future look like for ourselves and children? How many of us will survive this? Is survival our emerging national culture and priority? People are employing any available means to survive thereby gradually turning the society into a jungle where everyone wants to thrive even at the expense of others.

What is the overall implication of all these? Now here comes the real danger. When a greater majority of a country’s citizens are preoccupied with how to survive, no one will be left to create and add the value that will take the country to the promised land. When most people spend 75% of their time trying to fetch for their families amidst rising costs and harsh conditions, they can only spend the remaining 25% to rest against the next struggle, leaving them with zero time to think and create anything. When almost everyone is living to attain Dino Melaye’s certificate of Survival, we will have no other aspirations other than food and shelter. The result will be a backward nation that will remain static for only God knows when.

We cannot say that the current government is doing nothing about all these challenges, but they are doing nothing revolutionary. Measures like N-power, Conditional Cash Transfer and the likes are cosmetic, inadequate and unsustainable. Even their effects on the short term are too minimal to reflect on the general quality of national life. First and foremost, the country must have a comprehensive and exhaustive national development plan with inputs from local, state and federal stakeholders. This plan must be well developed, implemented and not politicized. If needs be, it should be backed by legislation. Government appointees at any time must be people that understand and can implement that plan religiously irrespective of their demography and political affiliations.

The development plan should be able to strengthen sectors like manufacturing, power, infrastructure, security and justice because such sectors have the potential of automatically creating and consolidating direct and indirect development. For example, if there is adequate security and power supply, independent businesses would run for 24 hours. When some people who conduct businesses during the day are asleep, some others who were resting during the day will conduct businesses during the night. Nigerian businesses will work for 24 hours with no valuable time to waste thereby hugely increasing productivity. We should be able to produce most of the goods we import.

When power is available, thousands of jobs would be created both directly and indirectly. Therefore, advisably, rather than invest in providing direct jobs which cannot satisfy all, let the government strengthen security and power.  We have seen what the telecommunication and entertainment industries have done to our economy through direct and indirect jobs creation with ripple effects and I think that success can be replicated in many other sectors. When this is done, governments will rely on its happy and self-employed citizens for taxes rather than the other way round.

It is unfortunate that we are being unable to implement basic solutions offered every now and then because politics has been our number one national priority since 1999. This has made many people to lose interest in providing any meaningful input to the Nigerian development discourse. I have received countless messages over the last eight months, including from some newspaper editors over my long break from analytical writing with some enquiring on what must be responsible. I usually didn’t have any consistent answer, sometimes I’ll just compose any reply that comes to mind.

Whatever will be said, has been said many times before, we just lack the will as a nation to take the bull by the horn. Just some days ago, a reader reminded me that it has being a year since I wrote an opinion piece asking why. I doubted and quickly went to my personal online blog only to confirm what he said was indeed true. I was surprised myself, but what the reader didn’t know is that I am currently battling to obtain my own certificate of survival.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez

The Return of Electoral Robbery

6^th July, 2020

 

By: Amir Abdulazeez

D

uring this lockdown period, I managed to read significant parts of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan’s book, ‘My Transition Hours’. I have been trying to avoid the book like others similar to it, simply because I don’t believe in the sincerity of politicians telling their own stories. But, what other ways can you cope under a three-month lockdown? One conclusion I reached was that the former President’s memoir was a tactical expression of his self-convincing feeling that he never lost freely and fairly to General Muhammadu Buhari in the 2015 presidential elections. All other things in the book were in my opinion more or less secondary to this. The more pages I read in that book, the more I found it difficult to disconnect President Jonathan and his henchmen with the Orubebe incident that largely placed huge question marks over his subsequent democratic heroics. 

There was one thing I however liked in the book and it was the provision of more insight on Jonathan’s commitment towards electoral reform. I don’t know what was his motivation, but what I understand, he badly wanted his government and the Ruling Party under him to represent a stark contrast from the garrison and cruel electoral style of the Obasanjo era. Jonathan apparently wanted to win the 2015 elections at all costs, but he wanted it to look clean and the inability to combine the two was what probably led to his downfall. But whatever his shortcomings were, the former Bayelsa State Governor must be given the credit of single-handedly ushering us into a new era from which free and fair elections should become a standard.

Most Nigerians have been wondering whether the credibility of our elections is improving, static or declining. One critical debate that will give an insight into this is finding out which election is better between 2015 and 2019, our two most recent national elections. In terms of the actual elections, 2019 appeared to be a bit better, except for those being carried away by the fact that an incumbent lost is the highest mark of credibility in elections. This is because, we are quite not used to such things in Africa, but that notwithstanding, an incumbent losing is not a global benchmark for credible elections.

In 2015, at least five state governors sat on clearly illegal mandates as compared to just one in 2019. Form the huge volumes of electoral reports and analyses I studied; I can comfortably hypothesize that about 25% of National Assembly members across all parties in 2015 were illegally elected as against about 5 to 10% in 2019. For the presidential elections, the results of about ten states can be said to be truly questionable in varying degrees against the five for 2019. These are not facts. However, on the preliminary and postliminary activities that constitute the electoral process, 2019 is by far the worse; the primary elections that produced candidates were one of the worst in history. The judicial proceedings that decided electoral cases were also one of the most unfortunate in Nigeria’s history.

All of these is by the way. Our concern now should be about how the current APC government is handling the electoral system and how it intends to continue handling it. There have been many allegations of electoral fraud during the 2019 elections, but what was witnessed in the Kano so-called re-run elections has been a subject of discussion. The brutally fraudulent and violent nature with which Kano was taken was not only a sad reminder of the peak Obasanjo days, it was an indication of how APC’s new winning formula. The National Assembly by-elections in the same Kano as well as the Kogi State governorship elections that followed is a practical testimony to this. The mistrust and misgivings of the electoral process by the electorates is back, the 2015 confidence have been destroyed and Nigerians now have serious doubts over the 2023 electoral process.

Though political parties in Nigeria are mere alphabets and acronyms, but the main elements that call the shots within the APC have been the major victims of electoral fraud from 2003 to 2011 and ironically the main beneficiaries of fairly acceptable elections between 2015 to 2019. They are the ones most expected to further reform the electoral process and make it better. No one expects what we witnessed in Kano and Kogi states to have happened under this president who was rigged out several times. Before that, we have seen what happened in Osun State in 2018. The return of full-fledged electoral fraud is imminent.

One will think certain things are beyond the control of the president and the APC. But, how do you explain the party appointing the Kano State governor as leader of its campaign council in Edo state?  The party is well aware that since the infamous dollar saga, Ganduje is gradually becoming the new reference point of corruption in Nigeria after collecting the baton from former Delta State Governor, James Ibori. Furthermore, the fiasco that returned Ganduje to Kano State Government House on March 2019 is the new national reference point for electoral mandate robbery in the country. With APC appearing not to care about all these, we can only conclude that it’s new message to Nigerians, that it no longer pretends, it no longer cares about free and fair elections.

Out of all these, none is the most dangerous. What represent our most critical danger is the attitude of the judiciary towards the electoral process. The courts especially at the highest level have become the new graveyards of electoral mandates. We are yet to recover from how the judiciary stamped its approval on the anomalies of the 2015 elections especially with regards to gubernatorial elections. It takes one of the most morally bankrupt consciences to rig an election, but it takes even a more morally bankrupt one to legitimize and affirm it.

Irrespective of the technical judicial processes, the various verdicts particularly from the Supreme Court were greatly detrimental to the well-being of the electoral process. With this development, everybody will now try to win election at all cost, knowing so well the judicial process is less than likely to unseat him. It has gradually become very clear that once you were not declared winner after the polls, you stand virtually no chance of reclaiming your mandate in the courts. First, the tribunals give much emphasis on flimsy technicalities and often dismiss several petitions on such grounds. Secondly, they often summarize all arguments and evidences brought before them as having failed to prove the case ‘beyond reasonable doubt’- an ambiguous phrase now so popularly and notoriously used to dismiss many competent cases.

Another source of concern is how INEC is tactfully returning to partisanship after a brief journey away from it. Before then, the electoral umpire has always not been forthcoming in preventing electoral malpractices, many of its actions even encourage it. Before and after elections, multiple alarms of foul play are being raised in different quarters and during the course of the elections, many candidates usually complain of rigging, violence, manipulation and oppression, but all INEC could do was to tell them to head to court if they were not satisfied. Is this all that the law empowers INEC to do?

Talking of the law, this brings us to the issue of the Electoral Act. The 8^th National Assembly did well in comprehensively amending the 2010 electoral act only for President Buhari to refuse his signature for reasons yet to be clearly justified. Lest we forget, the deficient electoral act of 2010 was what gave the Supreme Court the technical window to affirm the hugely questionable gubernatorial elections of Rivers, Akwa-Ibom and Abia states in 2015 on the grounds that the card reader is not recognized by the law. This was what empowered politicians with more impunity into 2019. To date, the 9^th National Assembly which is the darling of the administration appears not to have started any move regarding the Electoral Act. Let’s not begin to talk about the performance of local government elections under this administration.

The bottom-line now is that the electoral reform which had begun to make some progress since 2007 has gone back to square zero. Nigeria, courtesy of her leaders is a nation that is famous for taking one step forward and then two or more steps backwards. Whenever one step is taken in the right direction, several other steps would be taken in the wrong one. This is probably one of the major reasons why we have failed to make a lasting and permanent progress in a lot of things.

I have closely and critically observed elections at all levels since 2003 and I have researched fairly on the histories of past elections in Nigeria. Inspite of the sham we went through in 2003, 2007 and to some extent 2011, now represents the most disturbing moment in our contemporary electoral history. We use to have credible opposition that fights all these evils, now we don’t; we used to have some courts that deliver justice on electoral matters, now we don’t; we used to have majority of Nigerians fighting the menace, now almost everyone has given up.  

Elections appear to be the only potent weapon available to Nigerians against their oppressive leaders. All other constitutional options like impeachment, recall and freedom to protest are either suppressed, too bureaucratic or ineffective. Being aware of this, leaders now misbehave with impunity, use our own money against us with rascality and when it is election time, they rig with authority thinking that they will live till eternity.

Twitter: @AmirAbdulazeez