Will Tinubu Contest for President?

20^th November, 2015

By: AmirAbdulazeez

T

o many keen political observers, the question is no longer about what Tinubu wants; probably the question is whether Tinubu will get what he wants. That the Buhari’s government has exhausted all major appointments available without Tinubu featuring in any of them is a clear indication that Asiwaju might be aiming for something different and more prestigious.

Bola Tinubu’s quest to become Nigeria’s Vice President over the last nine years is something that almost every political onlooker is quite aware of. An adventure that has brought him mixed fortunes, but notably propelled him to greater national prominence. It was speculated that, Tinubu’s attempt to become former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar’s running mate under the defunct Action Congress (AC) in the 2007 Presdiential Elections was what created misunderstandings between the two men which culminated into the latter’s exit and return to the PDP in 2008-a decision that have kept haunting him to date and which some believe even to some extent cost him the 2015 APC ticket. Atiku was reported to have argued that, it was unfair to offer the Vice Presidency to a Yoruba or South-West man at a time when another Yoruba in President Obasanjo is just completing 8 years of his presidency. Atiku therefore opted for the less prominent Senator Ben Obi from the South-East against Tinubu who offered the Turaki of Adamawa the AC platform on a platter of gold, after PDP had forsaken him.

It has been further reported that Buhari’s refusal to drop Pastor Tunde Bakare and pick Tinubu was what led to the collapse of the proposed alliance to confront Jonathan and PDP, between the defunct CPC, ANPP and ACN in 2011. Buhari later made amends through ‘offering’ Tinubu in 2015 what he couldn’t in 2011, but the Jagaban Borgu was wary of the Muslim-Muslim hype this time around and was mindful of the threat it poses to the chances of the APC to clinch the presidency. Tinubu unexpectedly opted for his former commissioner in Professor Yemi Osinbajo whom many people feel is directly or indirectly holding the position of behalf of the APC National Leader.

Why does Tinubu attempted so desperately to become Vice President? Hardly is there anyone who has coveted the Vice Presidency as much as Tinubu in Nigeria’s democratic history. The answer is not far-fetched; it is all about political strategy, he might be eyeing the presidency through the easier route of the Vice Presidency. Tinubu had the opportunity to make himself ACN presidential candidate in 2011, but didn’t possibly because he knew it won’t work and was unlike many elites unwilling to just be on the presidential ballot for the sake of it. Unsurprisingly, he made no attempt to be Ribadu’s running mate either, who was the party’s presidential flag bearer.

Everybody, including Tinubu knows it will be very difficult for any South-West man to directly emerge president in the near future after Obasanjo had spent 8 out of the available 16 years on behalf of the region. Asiwaju seems to have sacrificed the Vice Presidency in 2015 to ensure APC’s victory, but it appears he may finally go for the presidency in 2019. If Buhari decides not to go for a second term, the coast might just be clear for him to emerge as APC standard bearer in 2019.

If Tinubu gets the presidency, it would be the reward of a long term systematic and strategic, planning politicking, manoeuvring, patience, investment and sacrifice. The roots of the former Lagos state governor’s strong and ruthlessly expanding political dynasty and influence sprang from his emergence as the only non-PDP governor in the South-West in particular and the whole of Southern Nigeria after the 2003 elections and his consistent struggles to rout PDP out of the zone and beyond and consistently champion the cause of opposition politics.

Some view Tinubu’s ‘refusal’ to so far accept any direct responsibility in Buhari’s government as a minus; others see it as a plus. Those who see it as a minus argue that many individuals in Buhari’s government are likely to use their portfolios to perform, gain influence and impress the president into considering them as worthy successors who would carry on with the policies of his government, thereby leaving Tinubu on the sidelines. On the other hand, those who consider it as a plus argue that Tinubu will remain focussed, fresh and influential by being devoid of any direct government problems or scandals. The indebtedness of APC to him personally continues and his position as a kingmaker can also be cemented by refusing to accept any post.

Tinubu’s potential presidential ambition is not likely to go unchallenged. Some national figures from his native South-West like Babatunde Fashola, Kayode Fayemi or even Yemi Osinbajo may develop some interest in the presidency. Notable APC figures from the South-East like Chris Ngige, Ogbonnaya Onu and Rochas Okorocha may argue that if the presidency is returning to the south, then it should be the turn of the Igbos and not South-West. Despite the South-East’s popularized political miscalculation in 2015, they may still view Tinubu as the man who denied them the Vice Presidency and may therefore do all they can to stop him from re-denying them not only the Vice presidency but probably the Presidency in 2019. Another stumbling block for Tinubu is the North which may insist that Buhari should complete 8 years and if for any reason he’s unable to do so, another northerner should take over for at least 4 years. People like Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Rabi’u Kwankwaso, Nasir El-Rufa’i and some two-term northern APC governors may want to try their luck if this scenario plays out.

Tinubu’s political grip on APC may be of immense advantage to him, but may also work against him. He has stepped on many toes within the party in trying to maintain his influence everywhere. The amount of people he fixed in the APC leadership and the presidency is unprecedented and from the look of things, he can count on Buhari’s support. However, his overbearing nature and his attempt to have an influence in virtually everything can prove costly. Already, reports have started going round that many notable people in the APC are re-considering their membership of the party because of Tinubu’s grip on the party and its organs. His invincibility was recently broken when he attempted to impose the leaderships of the National Assembly and unless he trades carefully, different groups within the APC can shed their differences and gang up against him ahead of 2019.